Mercury vs Liberty Prediction 9-19-25 WNBA Picks

The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury meet Friday in WNBA First Round Game 3 at the PHX Arena. Here’s a Mercury vs Liberty Prediction. This article will include a Mercury vs Liberty Pick.

New York Liberty Betting Preview

The New York Liberty look to make the second round for a third straight season. The Liberty have won 4 of their last 5 games.

The New York Liberty are averaging 68 points on 36.3 percent shooting and allowing 77.5 points on 39.9 percent shooting. Natasha Cloud is averaging 15.5 points and 3.5 assists, while Sabrina Ionescu is averaging 12.5 points and 5 rebounds. Breanna Stewart is the third double-digit scorer, and Jonquel Jones is dishing 1.5 assists. The New York Liberty are shooting 27.1 percent from beyond the arc and 64.7 percent from the free throw line. The New York Liberty are allowing 26 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury look to make the second round for the first time since the 2021 season. The Mercury have won 12 of their last 19 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 77.5 points on 39.9 percent shooting and allowing 68 points on 36.3 percent shooting. Alyssa Thomas is averaging 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, while Kahleah Copper is averaging 14.5 points and 2 rebounds. DeWanna Bonner is the third double-digit scorer and Satou Sabally is grabbing 7.5 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 26 percent from beyond the arc and 85.7 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 27.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 35 rebounds per game.

New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 19, 2025

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won each of their last seven night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Liberty have lost nine of their last 11 night games against Mercury teams that held a winning record.
• The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs after losing as favorites.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Liberty’s last four games at PHX Arena.

Why the New York Liberty will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Mercury’s last five games.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in six of the Mercury’s last seven games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last eight night games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Liberty’s last six games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

New York Liberty Player Facts

• Sabrina Ionescu ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for assists per game (5.7) this season.
• Leonie Fiebich ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for 3P% (42.5%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.
• The New York Liberty rank 1st for opponent three-point percentage this season (31.5%).
• The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (83.7%).

Mercury vs Liberty Injury Report

The Liberty don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Mercury vs Liberty Prediction

The Liberty in the underdog role is attractive because you don’t get this spot often. The Liberty are one of the best teams in the league when clicking, and this will be just the 12th time since October of last year where they’re an underdog. With that said, the Liberty are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Liberty are also 11-12 SU on the road. There’s also the injury to Breanna Stewart, and she wasn’t much of a factor in game 2. Clearly, Stewart isn’t right.

Also, if you’ve been riding with me all season, you know I’ve been high on the Mercury. Player for player, the Mercury are as good as any team in the league and when they play with the intensity they showed in game 2, they could win the title. I’ll lay the small number with the Mercury at home.