Mets vs Nationals Prediction 9/21/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 21st at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 80-75 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 12-6 and 3-5. In their game two loss, New York managed to tie the game in the ninth inning, but couldn’t score in the 10th or 11th for the loss. The Mets recorded 11 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Vientos, who went 1-1 with two RBIs in the loss. New York started McLean, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings, while Rogers picked up the loss in extras. 

Prior to this series, the Mets won two out of three against the Padres, but lost two out of three against the Rangers before that. New York has won four of their last six games and they are second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 737 runs with a .250 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 37 home runs and 122 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 42 home runs and 104 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 55.0 innings pitched this season. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 63-92 this year after they won game two by a score of 5-3 on Saturday afternoon. Washington led 3-0 in the second inning, but didn’t score again until the 11th, when they sealed the victory. The Nationals recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Lile, who went 2-5 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Washington started Cavalli, who allowed five hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Lao got the win and Poulin picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Nationals lost all four against the Braves, but did win two out of three against the Pirates before that. Washington has lost five of their last six games and they are last in the NL East standings. The Washington pitching staff has a 5.34 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and a .268 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 658 runs with a .242 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. James Wood has led Washington with 27 home runs and 89 RBIs, while Josh Bell has added 20 home runs and 61 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Jake Irvin, who is 8-13 with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 168.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Mets will beat the Nationals

• The Mets have won 11 of their last 12 home games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have lost 11 of their last 12 games after going to extra innings.
• The Mets have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 home games after going to extra innings.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in three of their last four games at Citi Field.

Why the Nationals will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last five road games following an extra innings win.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last four road games following an extra innings win have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last five games at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last six games.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Starling Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Nationals after playing the previous day.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Nationals.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in nine of his last 10 appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Garcia has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Mets vs Nationals Prediction 

New York has played better over the last week, but they lost on Saturday and are in a battle for a wild card spot. The Mets are 49-31 at home this season, while the Nationals are 32-45 on the road. Washington has had a very disappointing season and they are starting Irvin, who has allowed 5, 3, 7, 4, and 3 earned runs in his last five starts. New York is going with Manaea, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in three of his last five outings. Take the over here.