Marlins vs Mets Prediction 9/26/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 26th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 77-82 this year after they lost two out of three against Philadelphia by scores of 6-5, 1-11, and 0-1. In their game three loss, Miami fell behind in the first inning and couldn’t get the offense going in the shutout loss. The Marlins recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Johnston, who went 2-4 in the game. Miami started Junk, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 4.2 innings for the loss, while four pitchers combined to finish the last 3.1 innings. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins won all three against the Rangers and all three against the Rockies. Miami has won seven of their last nine games and they are third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 699 runs with a .251 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers (IL) has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 21 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 10-12 with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 167.2 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 82-77 this season after they won two out of three against the Cubs by scores of 9-7, 3-10, and 8-5. In their game three win, New York jumped out to a 6-0 lead in the fourth inning and hung on for the victory. The Mets recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Baty, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. New York started McLean, who allowed five hits and five earned runs over 5.1 innings for the win, while Diaz picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Nationals, but did win two out of three against the Padres before that. New York has lost three of their last five games and they are second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 759 runs with a .250 batting average and a .326 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 37 home runs and 123 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 43 home runs and 105 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Brandon Sproat, who is 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 16.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last nine night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as home underdogs.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Sandy Alcantara has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday appearances.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 20 games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in four of the Mets’ last five games as road favorites.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1230).
• The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (148).
• The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Marlins vs Mets Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup with a one game lead for the final wild card spot in the NL, so this is a huge game for them. The Mets are 33-45 on the road this year, while the Marlins are 36-42 at home. Miami has been very hot over the last two weeks and they are starting Alcantara, who has allowed 3, 2, 4, 1, and 2 earned runs in his last five starts. New York is going with Sproat, who has only made three appearances, but wasn’t great against Washington last time out. I think this New York team is really feeling the pressure and I think they could struggle at the plate here. Take the Marlins to win.