Mercury vs Lynx Prediction 9-28-25 WNBA Picks

The Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury meet Sunday in WNBA Second Round Game 4 at the PHX Arena. Here’s a Mercury vs Lynx Prediction. This article will include a Mercury vs Lynx Pick.

Minnesota Lynx Betting Preview

The Minnesota Lynx need a win to force a game 5 on Tuesday. The Minnesota Lynx have won 16 of their last 22 games.

The Minnesota Lynx are averaging 83.4 points on 45.8 percent shooting and allowing 77.6 points on 41.5 percent shooting. Napheesa Collier is averaging 20.6 points and 6.8 rebounds, while Kayla McBride is averaging 17.8 points and 3.6 rebounds. Courtney Williams is the third double-digit scorer and Natisha Hiedeman is dishing 3.4 assists. The Minnesota Lynx are shooting 30.1 percent from beyond the arc and 81.7 percent from the free throw line. The Minnesota Lynx are allowing 33.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.6 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury can make their fourth WNBA Finals appearance and first since 2014. The Mercury have won 14 of their last 23 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 79.3 points on 40.9 percent shooting and allowing 75 points on 39.9 percent shooting. Alyssa Thomas is averaging 17.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, while Satou Sabally is averaging 17.3 points and 7.7 rebounds. Kahleah Copper is the third double-digit scorer and Sami Whitcomb is grabbing 2.3 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 29.9 percent from beyond the arc and 83.1 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 26.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38 rebounds per game.

Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won each of their last five home games after winning as underdogs.
• The Lynx have lost three of their last four road playoff games.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Mercury and Lynx.

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Lynx have won nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Mercury.
• The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight games against the Lynx after winning as underdogs.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in each of their last six day games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Lynx after winning as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last eight games as favorites following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Lynx’s last seven games as underdogs following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Courtney Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified Guards for assists per game (6.2) this season.
• Kayla McBride ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Western Conference for three-pointers made per game (2.6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the equal-longest winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest road winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for points per game this season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+9.4).

Mercury vs Lynx Injury Report

The Lynx will be without DiJonai Carrington due to a foot injury. Napheesa Collier is also out with an ankle injury.

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Mercury vs Lynx Prediction

The good news is that the Lynx have experience this season playing without Collier, and there are players like Williams and McBride capable of elevating their game. The bad news is that the Lynx were already missing Carrington, and now they won’t have their head coach either. It’s a lot to overcome, especially when going up against a talented Mercury squad that smells blood in the water. I’ve been pounding the table for the Mercury for a while now, and here they are a game away from the finals.

This Mercury team is loaded with high level players, it’s just about them playing with intensity consistently. The Lynx as an underdog is attractive, especially when they’re 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 in the role. However, I’ve been on the Mercury all playoffs and have said many times they’re capable of winning the title, before the Collier news. I’ll lay the points.