New England Patriots (2-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-0)
October 5, 2025 8:20 pm EDT
The Line: Buffalo Bills -8.5; Over/Under: 49.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL action from Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Bills vs Patriots prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bills vs Patriots pick.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
New England has been a mixed bag on the field this year, considering their 2-2 record overall through four games. That said, the Patriots’ losses have each come by just one score. In the opener New England fell to the Las Vegas Raiders 20-13, then came the first win of the year versus the rival Miami Dolphins 33-27. In week three the Pats fell once again, this time at home versus the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-14. New England had 369 yards on offense in the loss with 5.2 yards per play, 26 first downs and a 6-of-13 success rate on third-down tries. What really buried the Patriots were the five turnovers—five of which were lost fumbles.
In their latest outing last weekend versus the Carolina Panthers, the Patriots were able to get back into the win column. New England scored points in every quarter—including 21 in the second quarter alone—on the way to a 42-13 win. QB Drake Maye finished on a 14-of-17 line for 203 yards and two scores, while Rhamondre Stevenson was the top rusher with nine carries for 38 yards. Stefon Diggs was the top receiver with his six catches for 101 yards in the win.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Over on the Bills’ side, they’ve been able to power through a 4-0 record thus far. Three of Buffalo’s four wins have come by double-digit margins, with the exception being a 41-40 home escape versus the Baltimore Ravens in the opener. Buffalo would then dispatch the New York Jets 30-10 and the Miami Dolphins 31-21 over the next two outings. In the Miami game, the Bills held the opposition to 276 yards (146 passing), 4.7 yards per play and 19 first downs but did give up 10-of-15 on third-down tries. The Bills offense generated 360 yards (203 passing) on the other side with 6.3 yards per play, 23 first downs and a 6-of-11 mark for third downs.
Last Sunday in their outing versus the New Orleans Saints, Buffalo held a 21-16 edge going into the fourth quarter. The Bills were able to post a 10-3 run from there in a 31-19 win. QB Josh Allen finished with a 16-of-22 line for 209 yards, two scores and a pick. Tops in rushing was James Cook with 22 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown of his own, while leading receiver Khalil Shakir had five catches for 69 yards and a touchdown.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction
I’ll take a stab on the Patriots. New England didn’t have a ton of trouble versus the struggling Panthers last weekend, unless you count a pretty tepid 16 first downs or a 3-of-9 success rate on third-down conversions. Otherwise the Pats were solid, notching 307 total yards (203 passing and 6.4 yards per play. The defense surrendered 326 yards on the other side (197 passing) with 5.0 yards per play, 21 first downs and 5-of-14 on third-down tries. New England has been a tale of two teams this year, with 33 or more points in their two wins alongside 14 or fewer points in their two losses.
As for Buffalo, they didn’t exactly look overwhelming in their home win over the Saints, thanks mostly to the 11 penalties for 55 yards and the rough 3-of-10 on third downs. The Bills defense did most of the work, holding New Orleans to 109 passing yards and 5-of-13 on third-down tries. Buffalo needs to get going quickly against New England if they don’t want the Pats to hang around as well.
