Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction 9/30/25 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet Tuesday in MLB Wild Card Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Here’s a Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction. This article will include a Yankees vs Red Sox Pick.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 89-73 on the year after playing the Blue Jays and Tigers. The Boston Red Sox are batting .254 on the season, have a .324 OBP, and a .421 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Boston Red Sox with 161 hits and 96 RBI while Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela have combined for 295 hits and 147 RBI.

Garrett Crochet gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 255 strikeouts this season. Crochet is 0-2 with a 0.00 ERA and 6 strikeouts in his postseason career. Crochet is 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA and 45 strikeouts in his career against the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 94-68 on the year after playing the White Sox and Orioles. The New York Yankees are batting .251 on the season, have a .332 OBP, and a .455 slugging percentage. The New York Yankees pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Aaron Judge leads the New York Yankees with 179 hits and 114 RBI while Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt have combined for 294 hits and 143 RBI.

Max Fried gets the ball for the New York Yankees, and he is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 189 strikeouts this season. Fried is 2-5 with a 5.10 ERA and 66 strikeouts in his postseason career. Fried is 3-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 40 strikeouts in his career against the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: September 30, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Fried      Record this season: 19-5      ERA: 2.86
• Home Record: 8-2
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 3-1

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last eight games.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last five road games against the Yankees following a home win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the last five games between the Red Sox and Yankees.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in each of their last four games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Garrett Crochet      Record this season: 18-5      ERA: 2.59
• Road Record: 13-2
• Last 5 against Yankees: 3-0

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Yankees have lost five of their last six playoff games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have won four of their last five games as road underdogs.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine Tuesday games.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven playoff games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Yankees’ last 12 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine playoff games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four games.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Judge has hit at least one home run in four of the Yankees’ last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances.
• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against the Red Sox.
• Amed Rosario has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Yankee Stadium against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Fried ranks 1st in the league for Wins (19) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances against the Yankees.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Garrett Crochet ranks 1st in the league for total Strikeouts (255) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (849).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (274).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (324).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1414).

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction

This is a fantastic pitching matchup and an intriguing series between two hated rivals. You can make a case for either side, but I’m leaning toward the Red Sox and the more favorable price. As great as Fried has been this season, he’s had issues in the postseason, which includes a 6.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP since 2021 through 37 innings. Current Red Sox hitters are batting .256 with a .330 on base percentage in 86 at bats against Fried.

The Red Sox have won 7 straight games with Crochet on the mound, and he has a 2.25 ERA and .213 allowed batting average in 116 road innings. In 108 at bats against current Yankees, Crochet is allowing a .222 batting average, .250 on base percentage and has 45 strikeouts. The Red Sox have also won 7 of the last 10 games against the Yankees. Give me Boston to draw first blood.