Guardians vs Tigers Prediction 9/30/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Guardians vs Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 30th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB Wild Card matchup. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 88-74 this year after they won two out of three against Texas by scores of 3-7, 3-2, and 9-8. In their game three win, Cleveland erased a late 5-3 deficit and hit a walk off home run in the 10th for the victory. The Guardians recorded 11 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Rocchio, who went 1-4 with one home run and four RBIs in the win. Cleveland started Allen, who allowed five hits and four earned runs over 4.1 innings, while Kent picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians won two out of three against the Tigers and three out of four against the Twins. Cleveland has won 14 of their last 17 games and they finished first in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 643 runs with a .226 batting average and a .296 on base percentage this season. Jose Ramirez has led Cleveland with 30 home runs and 85 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo has added 27 home runs and 70 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Gavin Williams, who is 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 167.2 innings pitched this year. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 87-75 this season after they lost two out of three against Boston by scores of 3-4, 2-1, and 3-4. In their game three loss, Detroit took a 3-1 lead in the fourth inning, but couldn’t score in the last five innings for the loss. The Tigers recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Baez, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. Detroit started Paddack, who allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Sewald and Rainey closed out the game. 

Prior to that series, the Tigers lost two out of three against the Guardians and all three against the Braves. Detroit has lost 10 of their last 12 games and they finished second in the AL Central standings. The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 758 runs with a .247 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Riley Greene has led Detroit with 36 home runs and 111 RBIs, while Spencer Torkelson has added 31 home runs and 78 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Tarik Skubal, who is 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP over 195.1 innings pitched this season.

Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians

• The Tigers have won each of their last 11 games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Guardians have lost each of their last five playoff games following a home win.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 home games against the Tigers following a home win.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last four games.
• The Tigers have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Guardians’ last nine home games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Tigers’ last eight games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Tigers’ last 11 games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Tigers and Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Steven Kwan has recorded a Double in three of the Guardians’ last four games as home underdogs against the Tigers.
• Steven Kwan has recorded a hit in each of the Guardians’ last 11 playoff games as underdogs.
• Nolan Jones has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jose Ramirez ranks T2nd in the league in Steals (44) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Zach McKinstry has recorded a Double in each of his last four road appearances against the Guardians after not playing the previous day.
• Riley Greene has hit a home run in three of the Tigers’ last four road games against the Guardians.
• Parker Meadows has recorded a hit in each of the Tigers’ last seven playoff games.
• Tarik Skubal ranks 2nd in the league for total Strikeouts (241) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1199).
• The Guardians rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.226).
• The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (61).
• The Tigers rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (36).

Guardians vs Tigers Prediction 

Cleveland was able to beat out Detroit in the race for the AL Central over the last month, so they will enjoy the home field advantage here. The Guardians are 45-36 at home this year, while the Tigers are 41-40 on the road. Detroit has been awful over the last few weeks and they have lost five of their last six against Cleveland. The Tigers are starting Skubal, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Cleveland is going with Williams, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. We know Skubal is one of the best in the game and even though I don’t love the Detroit offense, I will take the Tigers to win here.