Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1)
October 4, 2025 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Alabama Crimson Tide -10.5; Over/Under: 55.5
(Get latest betting odds)
Vanderbilt and Alabama meet Saturday in Week 6 college football action from Bryant-Denny. Here’s a Alabama vs Vanderbilt prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores pick.
Strong Start for Vanderbilt
It’s a strong start for Vanderbilt so far this season and they currently sit with a 5-0 record. Two games ago against Georgia State they won 70-21 and in the last game against Utah State, Vanderbilt was able to secure the 55-35. Diego Pavia had a huge completing 26 of his 34 passes for 321 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. He also finished with nine carries for 79 yards, and a touchdown. Pavia doesn’t look like he can be slowed down, but this a much tougher matchup against a much better defense.
Vanderbilt is averaging 49 points while their defense is giving up 17.2 points per game. The offense is ranked 4th while the defense is ranked 31st. If Vanderbilt can win this game, they are going to make a real statement to the rest of the SEC, and college football.
Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win
- Vanderbilt has won four of its last five games as a road underdog.
- Vanderbilt has covered the spread in each of its last six road games.
Alabama Made Quite a Statement
Alabama made quite a statement in the last game against the Georgia Bulldogs. Alabama scored zero points in the second half, but the defense was so impressive, that they still held on for the 24-21 victory. They allowed Georiga to only throw for 130 yards and they are going to have another big test here. Under center for Alabama is Ty Simpson and he completed 24 of his 38 passes for 276 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Jamarion Miller also finished with 16 carries for 46 yards.
Alabama is averaging 38 points while their defense is giving up 16.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 26th while the defense is ranked 28th. The defense is going to need to step up and make quite the statement here.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win
- Alabama has won each of its last 15 games in Alabama.
- Vanderbilt has lost 19 of its last 21 games against AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has covered the spread in each of its last five home games.
- Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six October games as a road underdog against AP-ranked teams.
- Vanderbilt has lost the first half in 20 of its last 25 road games against conference opponents.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Prediction
Vanderbilt is the play here. Alabama is an extreme letdown spot here after the big win against Georgia. Diego Pavia is having a huge year and even against a good defense, I think he’s going to find success. He has a weapon with his legs and in his last game he put up 79 yards. He might not put up that many yards again, but he’s going to lead the Vanderbilt’s offense to plenty of success again here. Vanderbilt is going to keep this game within a field goal, and I believe Alabama could be on upset alread again here. Back Vanderbilt to cover the spread.
