Raiders vs Colts Prediction 10/5/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Raiders vs Colts Prediction for this NFL Week 5 game on Sunday, October 5^th at the Lucas Oil Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Indianapolis Colts Preview

The Indianapolis Colts have a 3-1 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AFC South. They are 3-1-0 ATS, 2-2-0 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 away record and 2-0 home record. The Colts are coming off a 20-27 road loss to the Los Angeles Rams and are playing the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Chargers next.

Offensively, the Colts average 30.8 points per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 20.8 points per game, which is 12th. Indianapolis averages 397.3 total yards per game, with 136.3 rushing yards and 261 passing yards per game. They allow 319.8 total yards per game, with 96.0 rushing and 223.8 passing yards per game.

Daniel Jones leads the Colts with 1078 passing yards and 71.9% completed passes. Jonathan Taylor leads the team in rushing yards, with 414, while Michael Pittman Jr. has a team-high 21 caught passes for 234 receiving yards, and has 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Nick Cross has a team-high 34 total tackles, 20 of them solo. Tyquan Lewis leads the Colts in sacks, with two, while Camryn Bynum has two interceptions.

Las Vegas Raiders Preview

The Las Vegas Raiders have a 1-3 record this season and are sitting on the fourth place of the AFC West. They are 1-3-0 ATS, 2-2-0 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 away record and 0-2 home record. The Raiders are coming off a 24-25 home loss by the Chicago Bears and are playing the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs next.

Offensively, the Raiders average 19.3 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 24.8 points per game, which is 22nd. Las Vegas averages 329.5 total yards per game, with 114.3 rushing yards and 215.3 passing yards per game. They allow 331 total yards per game, with 102.8 rushing and 228.3 passing yards per game.

Geno Smith leads the Raiders with 948 passing yards and 63.8% completed passes. Ashton Jeanty leads the team in rushing yards, with 282, while Jakobi Meyers has a team-high 21 caught passes for 258 receiving yards. Defensively, Devin White has a team-high 34 total tackles, 25 of them solo. Jonah Laulu leads the Raiders in sacks, with 3, while Maxx Crosby has one interception.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Raiders have lost each of their last 11 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• The Colts have won each of their last 10 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last six Week 5 home games.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last four Week 5 home games against AFC opponents.
• The Raiders have lost the first half in each of their last 14 games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four Week 5 home games.

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

• The road team has won five of the Raiders’ last six games.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the last six games between the Raiders and Colts.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against AFC West opponents.
• The Colts have lost the first half in seven of their last eight home games in October.
• The Raiders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games as road underdogs against AFC South opponents.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in five of the Colts’ last six Week 5 games.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Colts’ last nine games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Raiders’ last four Week 5 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Sunday games at Lucas Oil Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored two or more touchdowns in each of the Colts’ last three games against teams on a losing streak.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 262+ passing yards in three of the Colts’ last four games.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in each of his six previous appearances with the Colts as home favorites against teams on a losing streak.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 104+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Colts as favorites following a road loss.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Josh Downs has recorded 60+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances following a loss.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 22+ completions in five of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 5, Jonathan Taylor ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (414) this season.

Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Tre Tucker has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Raiders’ last five road games.
• Jakobi Meyers has recorded 59+ receiving yards in each of the Raiders’ last eight games as underdogs.
• Geno Smith has recorded 233+ passing yards in four of his last five Sunday appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Geno Smith has recorded 10+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight road appearances against conference opponents.
• Jakobi Meyers has recorded 59+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Raiders’ last eight games as underdogs.
• Geno Smith has recorded 24+ completions in three of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Heading into Week 5, Ashton Jeanty ranks 1st in the NFL in broken tackles (15) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Colts – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Colts – six different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Raiders – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Raiders – three different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.

Raiders vs Colts Prediction

In their previous meeting in 2023, the Colts won 23-20 at home, and are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Raiders. Both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis, and over is 6-1 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Raiders vs Colts Prediction, the Colts are coming as -7-point home favorites, with the total set at 48 points. The Colts have lost only once in their four games played this season, and have won and covered both of their home games. On the flip side, the Raiders have lost three straight, and did not cover in any of them. The Colts are better both offensively and defensively, winning by an average of 10 points this season, and I like them to get the job done at home in this one. Take the Indianapolis Colts and lay the -7 points.