Lightning vs Senators Prediction 10/9/25 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Lightning vs Senators prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, October 9th at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning went 47-27-8 last season and they finished with 102 points, which was second in the Atlantic Division and third in the Eastern Conference. Tampa Bay had a fantastic season last year and they were one of the top teams in the NHL on both ends of the ice. The Lightning started the season by winning seven of their first ten games, including a 4-1 win over Carolina in their opener. Tampa Bay did slide a little in April, as they lost nine of their last 13 regular season games, before losing to Florida in five games in the first round. Last year, Tampa Bay scored 292 goals, which was ranked 1st in the NHL, while they allowed 216 goals against, which was ranked 4th. 

In the preseason, Tampa Bay went 6-1 overall, but did lose their last game on Saturday. The Lightning got wins against Carolina (twice), Nashville (twice), and Florida (twice), but also lost to the Panthers in their last game. Tampa Bay has plenty of talent once again this year and even with an aging core, they should be very good again. The Lightning are led by Kucherov, Point, Guentzel, and Hedman, while Vasilevskiy and Johansson will be the goalie options once again. 

Ottawa Senators Betting Preview

The Ottawa Senators were 45-30-7 last year and they finished with 97 points, which was fourth in the Atlantic Division and sixth in the Eastern Conference. Ottawa was up and down for most of the year, but they finished the regular season playing some very impressive hockey to get into the playoffs. The Senators started the year by winning four of their first six games, including a 3-1 win over Florida in their opener. Ottawa finished the regular season by winning 15 of their last 22 games, before losing to Toronto in six games in the first round. Last year, Ottawa scored 242 goals, which was ranked 18th in the NHL, while they allowed 232 goals against, which was ranked 13th. 

In the preseason, Ottawa went 3-3 overall, but did lose two of their last three games. The Senators got wins against the Maple Leafs, Devils, and Canadiens, but lost to the Maple Leafs, Canadiens, and Blues. Ottawa finished the 24-25 season with plenty of momentum and they should have a very nice season this year. The Senators are led by Stutzle, Tkachuk, Pinto, and Sanderson, while Ullmark and Merilainen will be the goalies. 

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Senators have lost each of their last six road openers.
• The home team has won each of the last four games between the Senators and Lightning.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six road openers.
• The home team has covered the puck line in three of the last four games between the Senators and Lightning.
• The Senators have lost the second period in each of their last four games as road underdogs when leading after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Nine of the Lightning’s last 10 home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the last six games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the Senators’ last four season openers have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in 20 of the last 21 games between the Senators and Lightning.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in 14 of the Senators’ last 15 road games against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brayden Point has scored a goal in six of his last seven home appearances against the Senators.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 13 of the Lightning’s last 16 games as favorites.
• Ryan McDonagh has recorded a point in seven of his last eight appearances against the Senators.

Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts

• Brady Tkachuk has scored a goal in four of the Senators’ last five games.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one assist in each of his last seven appearances with the Senators as underdogs against the Lightning.
• Tim Stutzle has recorded at least one point in each of his last nine appearances against the Lightning.

Lightning vs Senators Prediction 

Both of these teams made the playoffs last season and had very successful campaigns, so this should be a fun battle to start the season. Tampa Bay does have the home ice advantage and their offense has some elite talent. Ottawa has a ton of young players ready to show what they have and they are always a very physical team to play against. I do think Ottawa could have a better season than Tampa Bay, but I think the Lightning are the way to go, especially with fresh legs. Take TB here.