Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 10/13/25 NFL Picks Today

The Buffalo Bills and the Atlanta Falcons meet in week 6 NFL action from Mercedes Benz Stadium on Monday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction.

Buffalo Bills Recap

The Buffalo Bills come into this game looking to this game looking to bounce back from a 23-20 loss at the hands of the New England Patriots last time out to drop to 4-1 on the year. After this game, the Bills will head on the road for a game against the Carolina Panthers following their bye week.

Bills Looking To Rebound From First Loss

Josh Allen has thrown for 1,217 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 70.4% passing while also rushing for 212 yards and 3 scores. James Cook has a team-high 450 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns while Dalton Kincaid has a team-high 287 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this season. Khalil Shakir has 235 receiving yards and 22 receptions along with a pair of touchdowns while Keon Coleman has 226 receiving yards and 21 catches with 2 touchdowns. On defense, Terrel Bernard leads the Bills with 26 total tackles while the Bills’ defense as a whole has combined for 13 sacks and 2 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Falcons have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Bills have won nine of their last 10 games following a Division game.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the Bills’ last four games.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• James Cook has scored two touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four road games.
• Josh Allen has recorded 41+ rushing yards in nine of the Bills’ last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 283+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last four road games against NFC opponents.
• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in nine of the Bills’ last 10 games played as favorites on the East Coast.
• Josh Palmer has recorded 24+ receiving yards in each of his last 12 October appearances.
• James Cook has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances following a loss.
• Josh Allen has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Bills’ last four road games against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 6, James Cook is the only player in the NFL to record 100+ rushing yards in three or more consecutive games this season.

Atlanta Falcons Recap

The Atlanta Falcons come into this game looking to add on to their 34-27 win over the Washington Commanders last time out to improve to 2-2 on the year prior to last week’s bye week. After this game, the Falcons will head on the road for a game against the San Francisco 49ers.

Falcons Looking For Some Consistency

Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 918 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 62.4% passing while Bijan Robinson leads the Falcons in rushing with 314 rushing yards and a touchdown and also in receiving with 270 receiving yards out of the backfield. Drake London has a team-high 24 catches for 269 yards and a touchdowns while Kyle Pitts Sr. has 20 catches for 205 yards and a touchdown. On defense, Jessie Bates III has a team-high 24 total tackles while Xavier Watts has a pair of interceptions and Zach Harrison has a team-high 2.5 sacks. As a unit, Atlanta’s defense has combined for 10 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Falcons have won four of their last five Monday games as underdogs.
• The Bills have lost three of their last four games as road favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Falcons have covered the spread in six of their last seven Monday games as underdogs.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in each of the Falcons’ last three games following a home win.
• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last five home games.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 296+ passing yards in each of his three previous appearances against the Bills.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 45+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine October home appearances.
• Ray-Ray McCloud has recorded 33+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Tyler Allgeier has recorded 32+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last four games as home underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last eight October home appearances.
• Heading into Week 6, Parker Romo has recorded the equal-most made field goals in a single game this season (5 vs Vikings, Week 2).

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Falcons’ last nine home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Bills’ last eight road games following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

I’m on the Bills here. I know the Falcons are coming off of the bye week, but I think this will be a good bounce back spot for the Bills, who have yet to really play a top-end QB since Baker Mayfield in week 1. The Bills are a really strong team offensively and I have my concerns for this Falcons defense. I’ll side with the Bills in the bounce back spot here.