Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction 10/25/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction for this College Football Week 9 game on Saturday, October 25^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

New Mexico Lobos Preview

New Mexico has a 4-3 record this season and is sitting 9th in the MWC. They are 3-4 ATS, 4-3 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and a 1-3 away record. New Mexico is coming off a 24-22 home win against Nevada and will face Nevada-Las Vegas, Colorado State and Air Force next.

Offensively, New Mexico averages 28.4 points per game, ranking 73rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 26.3 points per game, which is 84th. New Mexico averages 366.1 total yards per game (218.9 passing and 147.3 rushing), while allowing 371.7 total yards per game (116.4 rushing and 255.3 passing).

Jack Layne leads New Mexico with 1,415 passing yards with 66.3% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Scottre Humphrey leads the team in rushing yards with 339, while Dorian Thomas has a team-high 37 receptions for 404 receiving yards. Defensively, Jaxton Eck has a team-high 75 total tackles (42 of them solo), while Keyshawn James-Newby leads the team in sacks, with 4.5, and Tavian Combs has a team-high 1 interception.

Utah State Aggies Preview

Utah State has a 4-3 record this season and is sitting 6th in the MWC. They are 6-1 ATS, 4-3 in Over/Under and have a 4-0 home record and a 0-3 away record. Utah State is coming off a 30-25 home win against San Jose State and will face Nevada, Nevada-Las Vegas and Fresno State next.

Offensively, Utah State averages 34.0 points per game, ranking 40th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 31.6 points per game, which is 120th. Utah State averages 428.4 total yards per game (265.6 passing and 162.9 rushing), while allowing 449.3 total yards per game (180.3 rushing and 269.0 passing).

Bryson Barnes leads Utah State with 1,644 passing yards with 65.1% completed passes and 13 touchdowns. Miles Davis leads the team in rushing yards with 466, while Braden Pegan has a team-high 34 receptions for 546 receiving yards. Defensively, John Miller has a team-high 62 total tackles (18 of them solo), while John Miller leads the team in sacks, with 5.5, and Noah Avinger has a team-high 3 interceptions.

Utah State Aggies @ New Mexico Lobos Betting Trends: Week 9

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

• The home team has won each of Utah State’s last 11 games.
• Utah State has lost each of its last 13 games as a road underdog.
• Utah State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 11 road games in October.
• The home team has covered the spread in 15 of Utah State’s last 18 games.

Why the Utah State Aggies will win

• New Mexico has lost 24 of its last 27 games against conference opponents at University Stadium.
• Utah State has won eight of its last nine games against teams from New Mexico.
• New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
• Utah State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.
• Utah State has won the first quarter in six of its last eight games against conference opponents.
• Utah State has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Utah State’s last 10 games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of New Mexico’s last seven October games as a home favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Scottre Humphrey leads New Mexico for touchdowns (6) this season.

Utah State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Miles Davis ranks 4th amongst qualified players for catch rate (95.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• New Mexico ranks T19th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+4.1).
• Utah State ranks 133rd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (96.4).
• Utah State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (29.2).

Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, New Mexico won 50-45 on the road, but Utah State has won its seven previous meetings, including its last 4 visits in New Mexico. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction, New Mexico is coming as -3-point home favorites, with the total set at 61.5 points. Both teams have identical records and both are 1-2 in their last 3 games. They have both been playing some higher-scoring games lately, as they are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games combined and last season they combined for 95 points in their only meeting. Take the over 61.5 points in this one.