Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction Football Picks Today 10/25/25

In this article we will formulate a Michigan State vs Michigan prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 25th at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 9 matchup. 

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans are 3-4 (0-4) this season after they lost to Indiana by a score of 38-13 in their last game. Michigan State led 10-7 in the second quarter, but they allowed the next 31 points in the blowout loss. The Spartans were out gained by a total of 464-367, went 5-14 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Aidan Chiles went 27-33 for 243 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing for 48 yards on eight carries. Nick Marsh led the receivers with seven receptions for 64 yards and one score in the loss. The MSU defense recorded zero sacks and three tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Michigan State lost to UCLA by a score of 38-13 and Nebraska by a score of 38-27. The Spartans have lost four games in a row and they are currently tied for last in the Big Ten standings. Michigan State has scored 27.1 points per game with 213.7 passing yards and 123.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 32.7 points against per game this season. Aidan Chiles has thrown for 1,262 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Nick Marsh has 36 receptions for 404 yards and five scores this season. 

Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

The Michigan Wolverines are 5-2 (3-1) this year after they defeated Washington by a score of 24-7 last week. Michigan was tied at seven at halftime, but out scored Washington 17-0 in the second half for the victory. The Wolverines out gained Washington by a total of 417-249, went 6-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-0 in the game. Bryce Underwood went 21-27 for 230 yards and two touchdowns, while Jordan Marshall rushed 25 times for 133 yards and one score. Zack Marshall led the receivers with five catches for 72 yards and one touchdown in the win. The Michigan defense recorded two sacks and seven tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that win, Michigan lost to USC by a score of 31-13, but did beat Wisconsin by a score of 24-10 before that. The Wolverines have won four of their last five games and they are currently tied for third in the Big Ten standings. Michigan has scored 28.7 points per game with 205.7 passing yards and 212.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.0 points against per game this season. Bryce Underwood has thrown for 1,440 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Justice Haynes (questionable) has rushed for 705 yards and eight scores on 95 carries this year. 

Why the Michigan Wolverines will win

• Michigan State has lost each of its last 10 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan has won 40 of its last 42 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of Michigan State’s last nine games.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games in Michigan.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in eight of its last nine games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State’s last seven games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of Michigan’s last eight road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Michigan State ranks T121st among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (32.7).
• Michigan ranks 136th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (11.1).
• Michigan ranks T4th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (11).

Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction 

Michigan comes into this matchup after getting a big win over Washington last week and they will look to stay alive for the CFP with another win here. The Wolverines are the much more talented team in this matchup and I think their defense is going to dominate. Michigan State has lost four games in a row and they have allowed at least 38 points in all four games. The Spartans are having a tough time finding stops on defense and they have scored just 13 points in back to back games. Take Michigan to cover on the road here. 

David Racey is 80-61 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!