Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Prediction 11/16/25 NFL Picks Today

The Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons meet Sunday in NFL action from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here’s a Panthers vs Falcons prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Panthers vs Falcons pick.

Carolina Panthers Betting Preview

The Panthers opened up the year on a 1-3 run with a lone win over the Atlanta Falcons mixed among losses to the Jaguars, Cardinals and Patriots. The Panthers would then hit a winning run versus the Dolphins, Cowboys and Jets before another loss—this time a blowout—versus the Buffalo Bills. Carolina followed that up with a tight victory on the road versus the Green Bay Packers. In that matchup the Panthers gained a tepid 265 yards with 4.9 yards per play, 19 first downs and 4-of-10 on third-down tries. The defense had a couple of takeaways though, and Green Bay’s seven penalties for 42 yards didn’t hurt the cause, either.

On Sunday versus the Saints, the Panthers had an early lead 7-3 after one quarter. Carolina was outscored 14-0 the rest of the way however, resulting in a 17-7 loss at home which dropped the team back to .500 on the season. QB Bryce Young finished with just 124 yards and a pick, while Rico Dowdle had 18 carries for 53 yards and a score to pace the rush. Tetairoa McMillan added five grabs for 60 yards to top the receivers in the defeat.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Over on the Falcons’ side, they kicked off their 2025 campaign with a 1-2 run, beating the Vikings by a fairly significant margin in between losses to the Buccaneers and Panthers. After that came wins over the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills, then a couple of losses to the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins. In their November 2 game, the Falcons were down by a touchdown heading into the third quarter. Atlanta scored nine in the final frame but it wasn’t enough in a 24-23 loss. The Falcons went just 1-of-10 on third downs in that one and gave up 8-of-12 on third downs to the Patriots—alongside a couple of takeaways defensively.

In their latest matchup on Sunday versus the Colts, the Falcons blew a 17-13 fourth-quarter lead and eventually lost 31-25 in overtime. QB Michael Penix logged a 12-of-28 line for 177 yards and a score, while leading rusher Bijan Robinson had 84 yards on 17 carries. Tyler Allgeier had two rush TDs, and Drake London added 104 yards with a score on six catches as the team’s leading receiver in the losing effort.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Panthers have lost each of their last six Week 11 road games.
• The Falcons have won each of their three previous Week 11 games against the Panthers.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Falcons’ last four Week 11 games.
• The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six Week 11 games against NFC opponents.
• The Panthers have lost the first half in nine of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six home games against the Panthers.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in three of their last four home games.

Why the Carolina Panthers will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Panthers’ last six games.
• The Falcons have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Panthers have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games after coming off overtime.
• The road team has won the first half in each of the Panthers’ last six games.
• The Panthers have scored the first touchdown in three of their last four road games played on the East Coast.
• The Falcons have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last four games between NFC South teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Panthers’ last four road games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Falcons’ last six November games against NFC South opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 20+ completions in each of his last four home appearances.
• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 250+ passing yards in each of his last four home appearances.
• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last four home games against NFC opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 43+ receiving yards in each of his last 11 home appearances against division opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 11 home appearances against division opponents.
• Tyler Allgeier has recorded 22+ rushing yards in 17 of the Falcons’ last 19 home games against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 11, Drake London has recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Patriots, Week 9).

Carolina Panthers Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Young has recorded 171+ passing yards in four of the Panthers’ last five games as underdogs against NFC South opponents.
• Rico Dowdle has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Panthers’ last four games against NFC opponents.
• Bryce Young has recorded 18+ completions in each of the Panthers’ last three road games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Xavier Legette has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his six previous appearances with the Panthers as underdogs against NFC South opponents.
• Chuba Hubbard has recorded 52+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last nine road appearances on the East Coast.
• Chuba Hubbard has recorded 28+ rushing yards in each of his last 23 appearances with the Panthers as underdogs on the East Coast.
• Heading into Week 11, Bryce Young has recorded the equal-most pass attempts in a single game this season (55 vs Cardinals, Week 2).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 11, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (162.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (21.6 yards) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Panthers rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down attempts (22) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Panthers have recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less this season (2).

Panthers vs Falcons Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Falcons, but I could go either way here. Atlanta needs to bounce back from a tough OT loss to the Colts quickly as well. In that one the Falcons gained a tepid 290 yards on offense and went a futile 0-of-8 on third downs. Meanwhile the defense gave up a whopping 323 rush yards—but did get a couple of takeaways and held Indy to just 2-of-12 on third downs on the other side. Atlanta has given up 24 or more points in three straight games now—all have been losses.

As for the Panthers, they didn’t have a great offensive day on Sunday versus the Saints either. Carolina notched just 175 total yards with 3.5 yards per play, 13 first downs and two turnovers. The defense gave up 388 yards on the other side with 17 first downs and 8-of-17 on third-down tries. The Panthers have been below 17 points in four straight games, going 2-2 in that quartet. This weekend’s matchup seems like a coin-flip proposition so I’m probably not touching it. Should be competitive, though.