Capitals vs Maple Leafs Prediction 11/28/25 NHL Picks Today

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals meet Friday in NHL action at the Capital One Arena. Here’s a Capitals vs Maple Leafs Prediction. This article will include a Capitals vs Maple Leafs Pick.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Habs, beat the Blue Jackets, and they play the Penguins next. The Maple Leafs have lost 7 of their last 9 games.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are averaging 3.3 goals per game and are scoring 15 percent of their power-play opportunities. John Tavares leads Toronto with 12 goals, William Nylander has 20 assists, and Auston Matthews has 68 shots on goal. Defensively, the Toronto Maple Leafs are allowing 3.61 goals per game and are killing 80.9 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Anthony Stolarz has allowed 41 goals on 353 shots faced, while Dennis Hildeby has given up 12 goals on 128 shots.

Washington Capitals Betting Preview

The Washington Capitals beat the Blue Jackets and Jets, and they play the Islanders next. The Capitals have won 5 of their last 6 games.

The Washington Capitals are averaging 3.33 goals per game and are scoring 15.1 percent of their power play opportunities. Tom Wilson leads Washington with 12 goals, John Carlson has 16 assists, and Jakob Chychrun has 83 shots on goal. Defensively, the Washington Capitals are allowing 2.67 goals per game and are killing 72 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Logan Thompson has given up 33 goals on 377 shots faced, and Charlie Lindgren has allowed 27 goals on 237 shots.

Why the Washington Capitals will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost eight of their last nine games after coming off overtime.
• The Capitals have won five of their last six games.
• The home team has covered the puck line in seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games after coming off overtime.
• The Capitals have won the third period in each of their last five games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the second period.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Capitals have lost five of their last six games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Capitals.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 25 of their last 26 games as underdogs following an overtime win.
• The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have won the second period in each of their last four games against the Capitals when leading after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games against opponents on a winning streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Capitals’ last seven games following a win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Capitals’ last 11 games following a win.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last seven games against opponents on a winning streak.

Washington Capitals Player Prop Facts

• Jakob Chychrun has scored at least one goal in each of the Capitals’ last four games.
• Jakob Chychrun has recorded at least one point in each of the Capitals’ last nine games.
• John Carlson has recorded at least one assist in six of the Capitals’ last seven home games against the Maple Leafs.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Bobby McMann has scored a goal in each of his four previous appearances against the Capitals.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one point in 18 of his last 19 appearances in night games.
• Matthew Knies has recorded at least one assist in each of his last five appearances against Metropolitan Division opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Washington Capitals rank 29th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (72.00%).
• The Washington Capitals are one of four teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 29th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.61).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 28th in the league in power play percentage this season (15.00%).

Capitals vs Maple Leafs Prediction

The Maple Leafs are showing signs of coming back from the dead, as they’ve earned points in 3 of their last 4 games. Still, I need to see the Maple Leafs put it together on the road, where they’ve won just two games. The Capitals are finishing games over the last two weeks, the offense is humming, and they’re at home where they’ve played their best hockey. I have to side with the Caps on Friday.