Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction 12/28/25 NHL Picks Today

The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Sunday in NHL action at the Benchmark International Arena. Here’s a Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction. This article will include a Lightning vs Canadiens Pick.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens lost to the Penguins, beat the Bruins, and they play the Panthers next. The Canadiens have won 5 of their last 8 games.

The Montreal Canadiens are averaging 3.27 goals per game and are scoring 26 percent of their power play opportunities. Cole Caufield leads Montreal with 18 goals, Nick Suzuki has 31 assists and Juraj Slafkovsky has 73 shots on goal. Defensively, the Montreal Canadiens are allowing 3.27 goals per game and are killing 77.7 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jakub Dobes has given up 55 goals on 517 shots faced, and Sam Montembeault has allowed 49 goals on 343 shots.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Panthers and Blues, and they play the Ducks next. The Lightning have won 3 straight games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3.27 goals per game and are scoring on 17.2 percent of their power play opportunities. Brandon Hagel leads Tampa Bay with 18 goals, Nikita Kucherov has 32 assists, and Jake Guentzel has 101 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.59 goals per game and are killing 84.8 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 52 goals on 601 shots faced, while Jonas Johansson has given up 39 goals on 378 shots.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won 14 of their last 16 home games against the Canadiens.
• The Canadiens have lost 13 of their last 15 night games at Benchmark International Arena.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in four of their last five night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four night games following a road win.
• The Lightning have won the third period in nine of their last 10 games against the Canadiens when trailing after the second period.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Canadiens have won each of their last five games as underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last eight road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 10 home games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The road team has won the first period in each of the last six games between the Canadiens and Lightning.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Canadiens’ last nine Sunday games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Eleven of the Lightning’s last 12 night games against Atlantic Division opponents at Benchmark International Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Six of the last eight games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last six games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last 12 Sunday games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored a goal in each of his last four appearances against the Canadiens.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in seven of his last eight appearances in home games.
• Charle-Edouard D’Astous has recorded five shots against the Canadiens this season – most against any opponent.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Ivan Demidov has scored a goal in each of the Canadiens’ last three games as underdogs.
• Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Canadiens’ last nine games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranks T2nd in the league for Game Winning Goals (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (84.80%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.59).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank 4th in the league in power play percentage this season (25.96%).
• The Montreal Canadiens rank T7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.27).

Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction

The Lightning should be favored for obvious reasons, especially when they smoked the Habs on the road earlier this month, 6-1. The Lightning have won 7 of the last 10 games against the Canadiens and most of those games weren’t close. However, the Lightning are on the end of a back to back and this could be a letdown spot after a win over rival Florida. It was also a physical game. Meanwhile, the Habs haven’t played in 5 days, so they’re as fresh as a baby’s bottom. The Canadiens are also playing good hockey this season, which includes 10 road wins. Give me the plus money with the Habs on the road.