Nationals vs Phillies Prediction 3/31/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, March 31^st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 1-3 record this season and are sitting in the last place of the NL East. They have a 1-3 home record and are coming off a 13-2 home defeat by the Nationals. Their previous three games were an 8-3 home loss, a 5-4 home loss, and a 5-3 home win over the Rangers.

The Phillies have a .189 batting average this season, .289 OBP and .295 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 6.57 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .417 batting average. Alec Bohm leads the team in RBI with 4, also adding a team-high one home run.

Andrew Painter (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies and he will make his MLB debut after getting drafted by the Phillies in 2021 at no.13. He spent last summer at Triple A Lehigh Valley where he had a 5.65 ERA and allowed 10 hits and 3.9 walks per nine innings.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 3-1 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the NL East. They have a 3-1 road record and are coming off a 13-2 road win over the Phillies. Their previous three games were a 6-3 road win, a 10-2 road loss, and a 10-4 road win over the Cubs.

The Nationals have a .299 batting average this season, .364 OBP and .479 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Joey Wiemer is the team’s best hitter with a .800 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 4 and adding a team-high two home runs.

Reliever PJ Poulin (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and last season he had a 2-1 record, 3.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: March 31, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Painter      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Home Record: –
• Last 5 against Nationals: –

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won 12 of their last 13 home games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Tuesday games as home favorites.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight Tuesday home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: PJ Poulin      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 0.00
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Phillies’ last 10 games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in three of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Nationals’ last eight road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Phillies’ last 10 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Nationals’ last five night games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last five Tuesday games at Citizens Bank Park.
• Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Luis Garcia has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against the Phillies.
• Nasim Nunez ranks T4th in the league in Steals (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (6.57).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.283).
• The Nationals rank T1st in the league for runs scored this season (31).
• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.479).

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and are 3-3 in their last 6 meetings in Philly. Under is 5-2-2 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -185 home favorites. The Nationals destroyed the Phillies yesterday in the opening game of the series by 13-2 and are 3-1 this season, while the Phillies have three straight defeats, having 21 earned runs in their last two games. I don’t trust Andrew Painter in his first MLB start but I don’t trust the Nationals to win another game in Philly with a reliever. The Nats are averaging a whopping 7.7 runs per game so far, so I will take the over 9 runs in this one.