Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction 5/11/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, May 11^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 18-22 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the AL East. They have a 12-9 home record and are coming off a 1-6 loss at home against the Angels. They will face the Angels and the Yankees next.

The Blue Jays have a .251 batting average this season, .313 OBP and .381 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .308 batting average. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team in RBI with 26, also adding a team‑high 10 home runs.

Kevin Gausman (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 2-2 record, 3.09 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 26-13 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the AL East. They have a 12-9 away record and are coming off a 4-1 win on the road against the Red Sox. They will face the Marlins and the Orioles next.

The Rays have a .254 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .373 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .314 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 29, and Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 11 home runs.

Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 2-1 record, 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: May 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 3.09
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-1

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Rays and Blue Jays.
• The Rays have lost each of their last eight road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games against AL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 2.95
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-2

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last seven games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six games against the Rays following a loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six Monday games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Rays’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Blue Jays’ last six games as favorites against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven night games between the Rays and Blue Jays.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight road games against American League opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Kevin Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against the Rays.
• Ernie Clement has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 18 night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of his last three appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Ernie Clement ranks T9th in the league in Hits (47) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 17 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs.
• Chandler Simpson has recorded at least one hit in each of his 12 previous appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (269).
• The Blue Jays rank T29th in the league for triples this season (1).
• The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (46).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (274).

Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Jays have won their last three meetings in Toronto. The Rays swept their previous series against the Jays this season by 3-0 wins at home.

In this Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction, the Blue Jays are coming as -135 home favorites. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball so far and we are getting them as underdogs with Rasmussen on the mound ? I will gladly take it. Gausman lost his previous start against the Rays this season and Tampa’s bullpen has been one of the best in the league lately, while Toronto ranks 18^th in bullpen ERA. The Rays also have a better offense so take them on the moneyline in this one for plus money.