Mariners vs Astros Prediction 5/11/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mariners vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, May 11^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 16-25 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the AL West. They have a 9-10 home record and are coming off a 0-5 loss on the road against the Reds. They will face the Rangers and the Twins next.

The Astros have a .258 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .429 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 5.57 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .318 batting average, also adding a team‑high 13 home runs. Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 27.

Peter Lambert (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 2-2 record, 2.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 19-22 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the AL West. They have a 7-11 away record and are coming off a 1-2 loss on the road against the White Sox. They will face the Padres and the White Sox next.

The Mariners have a .229 batting average this season, .319 OBP and .378 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Randy Arozarena is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average. Luke Raley leads the team in RBI with 23, also adding a team‑high 8 home runs.

George Kirby (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 4-2 record, 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: May 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Peter Lambert      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 2.42
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Mariners: 0-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight home games against the Mariners following a road loss.
• The Mariners have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last nine home games against the Mariners following a road loss.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have won the first inning in five of their last six home games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 2.94
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Astros: 3-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last seven games against the Astros.
• The Astros have lost eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last five night games at Daikin Park following a road loss.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games at Daikin Park against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in each of their last four games against the Astros.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Daikin Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last eight home games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mariners’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last 10 games against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last six games as underdogs against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two home games against AL opponents.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last eight home games against AL opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.422) this season.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last three games against AL West opponents.
• Julio Rodriguez has recorded two or more hits in each of the Mariners’ last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• George Kirby has recorded a win in eight of his last nine appearances against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• George Kirby has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against the Astros.
• Randy Arozarena ranks T10th in the league in Steals (9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank T1st in the league for doubles this season (77).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.57).
• The Mariners rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (99).
• The Mariners rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (54).

Mariners vs Astros Prediction

The Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against the Astros and have won their last three visits in Houston. They have swept their previous series this season by 4-0 wins in Seattle and the over is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Mariners vs Astros Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -150 road favorites. The Mariners have been weak on the road and have lost back-to-back games against the White Sox, having scored just one run in each game and are now -150 favorites on the road? Both pitchers have been good but Lambert has been in better form with just two earned runs across his last three starts and Seattle ranks just 25^th in runs per game, so I like the value with the home dog in this spot. Take the Astros on the moneyline for plus money.