Mets vs Marlins Prediction 7/30/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 30th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 46-63 this season after they won two out of three against the Braves by scores of 14-3, 3-2, and 0-1. In game three, New York allowed a run in the sixth inning, which ended up being the difference in the shutout loss. The Mets recorded two hits in the game and they were led by Benge, who went 1-3. Scott allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Perez threw a scoreless inning in relief. Prior to that series, New York lost two out of three against the Dodgers and two out of three against the Brewers. 

This season, New York has a 4.13 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while they have scored 449 runs with a .234 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Juan Soto (IL) has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 10 home runs and 53 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Nolan McLean, who is 7-7 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 119.1 innings pitched this season. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 55-54 this year after they swept the Phillies in three games by scores of 8-7, 1-0, and 8-6. In game three, Miami trailed 6-0 in the fifth inning, but they scored the last eight runs to get the win. The Marlins recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Lopez, who went 2-5 with two RBIs. Gusto allowed nine hits and six earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Zuber picked up the win and Fairbanks got the save. Prior to that series, Miami lost all three against the Padres and all three against the Astros. 

This season, Miami has a 4.09 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while they have scored 481 runs with a .251 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with 14 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Otto Lopez has added nine home runs and 50 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Eury Perez, who is 5-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 98.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last nine road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has won each of the last seven games between the Marlins and Mets.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last five night games against the Marlins.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Thursday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last nine road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last eight games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight night games at Citi Field following a loss.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Thursday games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the last nine night games between the Marlins and Mets.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets’ last two games as favorites.
• Nolan McLean has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 appearances against the Marlins.
• Nolan McLean has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Mets as favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Griffin Conine has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Eury Perez has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Eury Perez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

Miami comes into this matchup after a great sweep over the Phillies, as they were able to snap their very long losing streak. The Marlins are 21-31 on the road this year, while the Mets are 24-31 at home. New York has won three of their last four games and they have allowed three runs or fewer in four straight. The Mets are starting McLean, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, while Perez has allowed 3, 0, 2, 0, and 1 earned run in his last five outings. Take the under here.