Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/3/26 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Monday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Michael King for the start here and King is 6-7 with a 3.38 ERA and 109 strikeouts this season. Arizona will start Brandon Pfaadt here and Pfaadt is 5-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 49 strikeouts this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 5-4 win over the Giants on Sunday to sit at 58-54 this season. After this series, the Padres will head home for a series against the Houston Astros.

Padres Win 3 Straight & 8 Of Last 9

Jackson Merrill has 100 hits with 18 doubles, 16 home runs and 52 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 68 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 43 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 122 hits with 22 doubles, 8 home runs and 49 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 81 hits with 10 doubles, 9 home runs and 40 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 85 hits with 19 doubles, 23 home runs and 65 RBIs as well on the year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to bounce back from a 5-0 loss at the hands of Cleveland last time out to sit at 59-53 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will take on the Dodgers in a series at home.

Diamondbacks Have Four-Game Win Streak Snapped

Corbin Carroll has 100 hits including 22 doubles, 12 triples, 16 home runs and 52 RBIs. Ketel Marte has 109 hits with 22 doubles, 3 triples, 19 home runs and 62 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 92 hits, with 14 doubles, 4 triples, 9 home runs and 41 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 88 hits with 20 doubles, 15 home runs and 51 RBIs and Gabriel Moreno has 89 hits with 18 doubles, 8 home runs and 47 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 88 hits with 16 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs and 51 RBIs.

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: August 3, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt      Record this season: 5-1      ERA: 4.00
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Padres: 3-1

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last eight road games following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last seven Monday home games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight road games following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in each of their last three games at Chase Field.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against the Padres at Chase Field.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael King      Record this season: 6-7      ERA: 3.38
• Road Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 3-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games.
• The Diamondbacks have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Padres following a loss.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against NL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Chase Field against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games at Chase Field against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Padres’ last five road games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Three of the Diamondbacks’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the last nine night games between the Padres and Diamondbacks.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Padres’ last four road games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ketel Marte has hit a home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four home games against NL West opponents.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against the Padres.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Diamondbacks as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Gabriel Moreno ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.298) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Xander Bogaerts has hit a home run in each of the Padres’ last two games at Chase Field.
• Michael King has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Michael King has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Rengifo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T7th in the league in Hits (122) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (760).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (114).
• The Padres rank 26th in the league for hits this season (866).

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I get the case to be made for either side, because both starters have been solid for their respective rotations. King has been arguably the Padres’ ace this season, and Pfaadt has been money for Arizona since coming back from his injury. I think this is going to end up being a low-scoring game so give me the under here.