Rays vs Orioles Prediction 8/23/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Orioles Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, August 23^rd in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 63-67 record this season and sit in 5th place in the AL East. They have a 34-33 home record and are coming off a 3-2 home win against the Rays. They will face the Cardinals and the Athletics next.

The Baltimore Orioles have a .236 batting average this season, .318 OBP, and .397 Slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.20 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Pete Alonso is the Orioles’ best hitter with a .273 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 85, adding a team-high 30 home runs.

Shane Baz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, holding a 4-13 record, 4.02 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 76-53 record this season and sit in 1st place in the AL East. They have a 33-30 road record and are coming off a 2-3 road loss against the Orioles. They will face the Tigers and the Padres next.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a .261 batting average this season, .330 OBP, and .406 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the Rays’ best hitter with a .308 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI with 82, adding a team-high 35 home runs.

Nick Martinez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, holding a 12-4 record, 3.05 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: August 23, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz      Record this season: 4-13      ERA: 4.02
• Home Record: 3-5
• Last 5 against Rays: 1-0

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won each of their last eight games as home underdogs against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost nine of their last 10 games as road favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 12-4      ERA: 3.05
• Road Record: 5-1
• Last 5 against Orioles: 0-3

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won nine of their last 11 road games.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last three day games against the Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a win.
• The road team has covered the run line in 20 of the Rays’ last 22 games.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays’ last six games following an extra innings loss have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Orioles’ last eight games as underdogs.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Nick Martinez’s last four appearances as a starter.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Dylan Beavers has hit a home run in three of the Orioles’ last four games.
• Shane Baz has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL opponents .
• Shane Baz has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last 14 games.
• Pete Alonso ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Liam Hicks has hit a home run in each of the Rays’ last two games as road favorites.
• Nick Martinez has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Martinez has recorded four or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
• Jonny Deluca has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (35) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (491).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1197).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.261).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (913).

Rays vs Orioles Prediction

The Orioles are 8-1 in their last 9 meetings against the Rays and have won their last five meetings in Baltimore.

In this Rays vs Orioles Prediction, the Rays are coming as -106 road favorites. I like the Rays in a bounce-back spot on the road today, as they are looking to avoid the series sweep. The are putting Nick Martinez on the mound, who has two straight bad starts but he will bounce back today, as he has a 5-1 record and 2.14 ERA on the road and will face a struggling Orioles offense that scores just 2.7 runs per game in their last 5. Baz has been in bad form for the Orioles, having lost all of his last four starts and has a 5.19 ERA across his last three starts. Take the Rays in this one.