Astros vs Mariners Prediction 9/22/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Astros vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, September 22^nd in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 73-83 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 40-35 home record and are coming off a 2-1 road win against the Rockies. They will face the Angels next.

The Seattle Mariners have a .232 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Randy Arozarena is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average, adding a team-high 76 RBI and a team-high 26 home runs.

Logan Gilbert (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 12-10 record, 3.69 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 77-79 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the AL West. They have a 38-37 away record and are coming off a 2-4 home loss against the Braves. They will face the Athletics next.

The Houston Astros have a .240 batting average this season, .313 OBP and .410 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .313 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 99 and adding a team-high 40 home runs.

Cristian Javier (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 2-6 record, 5.31 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: September 22, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert      Record this season: 12-10      ERA: 3.69
• Home Record: 9-5
• Last 5 against Astros: 2-2

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won seven of their last eight home games against the Astros.
• The Astros have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Mariners following a loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in five of their last six games as favorites against the Astros.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in each of their last four games at T-Mobile Park.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven road games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristian Javier      Record this season: 2-6      ERA: 5.31
• Road Record: 1-3
• Last 5 against Mariners: 1-2

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Mariners have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites following a road win.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites following a road win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last seven night games against AL opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Mariners’ last 12 night games against AL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in 13 of the Astros’ last 14 games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Mariners’ last eight night games.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Lazaro Montes has hit a home run in three of his four previous appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Logan Gilbert has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 17 home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Dominic Canzone has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 16 night games.
• Logan Gilbert has recorded a win in seven of his last eight home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last four games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Cristian Javier has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against AL West opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last nine games as underdogs.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.313) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 29th in the league for hits this season (1202).
• The Mariners rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (198).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for steals this season (46).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (626).

Astros vs Mariners Prediction

The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Astros and have won their last three meetings in Seattle.

In this Astros vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -145 home favorites. Both teams have something to play for and I like the Mariners at home with Gilbert on the mound, who has been dominating the Astros in his recent starts against them. Javier on the other hand, has a 5.31 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season and the Astros are 2-7 in their last 9 games and their bullpen has been terrible lately, as well as their offense. Take the Mariners to win this one at home.