Missouri State Bears (1-2) vs. SMU Mustangs (2-1)
September 26, 2026 9:00 pm EDT
The Line: SMU Mustangs -34.5 / Missouri State Bears +34.5; Over/Under: 59.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Missouri State Bears and the SMU Mustangs meet in week 4 college football action from Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Missouri State Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction.
Missouri State Bears Recap
The Missouri State Bears come into this game looking to rebound from a 30-24 loss at the hands of Marshall last time out to sit at 1-2 this season. After this game, Missouri State will head home for a game against Delaware.
Bears Looking To Rebound With Upset Win
Skyler Locklear has thrown for 597 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception on 67.7% passing while Ramone Green Jr. leads Missouri State in rushing with 159 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. Breezy Dubar sits behind Green Jr. on the ground with 118 yards and 2 TDs. Isaiah Myers leads the Bears in receiving with 296 yards on 12 catches along with 1 touchdown, while Jmariyae Robinson trails with 93 yards on 12 catches. On defense, Jared Lloyd has a team-high 32 total tackles and leads the team with 1 sack, while Jashawn Cooper recorded 1 interception. Missouri State’s defense as a whole has combined for 5 sacks and 1 interception so far this season.
SMU Mustangs Recap
The SMU Mustangs come into this game looking to bounce back from their 41-31 loss at the hands of Louisville last time out to sit at 2-1 this season. After this game, SMU will take on Boston College in a matchup at home.
Mustangs Looking To Rebound From Double-Digit Defeat
Kevin Jennings has thrown for 989 yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 73.6% passing while Kendrick Raphael leads SMU in rushing with 275 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns so far this season. Dramekco Green sits behind Raphael on the ground with 85 yards and 0 TDs. Yamarion Smith leads the Mustangs in receiving with 201 yards on 9 catches, while Yamir Knight trails with 181 yards on 16 catches along with 1 touchdown. On defense, Tyson Polley Jr. has a team-high 18 total tackles, while Jimmy Wyrick leads the team with 2 sacks, and Jarvis Lee recorded 1 interception. SMU’s defense as a whole has combined for 5 sacks and 1 interception so far this season.
Missouri State Bears @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: Week 4
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- SMU has won each of its last six games against opponents from the Conference USA.
- Missouri State has lost five of its last six games.
- SMU has covered the spread in each of its last nine games against opponents from the Conference USA at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
- Missouri State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog.
- SMU has won the first quarter in each of its last eight home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- SMU has won the first half in each of its last 19 games as a favorite in Texas.
Why the Missouri State Bears will win
- SMU has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as an AP-ranked team.
Total Points Facts
- Each of SMU’s last four home games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of Missouri State’s last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Kevin Jennings ranks 6th amongst FBS players for passing yards (989) this season.
Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Isaiah Myers ranks 12th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (24.7) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- SMU ranks 2nd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (368.7).
- SMU ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (1.0).
- Missouri State has lost the fourth quarter in each of its last three games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
- Missouri State ranks T136th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (0.0).
Missouri State Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction
I’m on the Mustangs in this one. It’s a big number here, but the problem I have is that Missouri State didn’t show up in their lone major step up spot against Texas A&M and this feels like a name your number spot for SMU. The Bears gave up big numbers to Texas A&M This year and USC last season and I think this is a rout. Give me SMU.
