Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction 9/27/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction for this NFL Week 3 game on Sunday, September 27^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Miami Dolphins Preview

The Miami Dolphins have a 0-2 record this season and are coming off a 13-35 road loss against the San Francisco 49ers. They will face the Vikings, the Bengals and the Jets next. Offensively, the Dolphins average 13 points per game, ranking 30th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 31 points per game, which is 28th. Miami averages 271.5 total yards per game (183.5 passing and 88 rushing), while allowing 336 total yards per game (112.5 rushing and 223.5 passing).

Malik Willis leads the Dolphins with 417 passing yards with 58.0% completed passes and one touchdown. De’Von Achane leads the team in rushing yards with 110, while Caleb Douglas caught 7 passes for a team-high 113 receiving yards. Defensively, Jacob Rodriguez has a team-high 22 total tackles (eight of them solo).

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs have a 2-0 record this season and are coming off a 33-30 home win against the Indianapolis Colts. They will face the Raiders, the Chargers and the Seahawks next. Offensively, the Chiefs average 32 points per game, ranking 3rd in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 20 points per game, which is 11th. Kansas City averages 457.5 total yards per game (283 passing and 174.5 rushing), while allowing 252.5 total yards per game (91 rushing and 161.5 passing).

Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs with 566 passing yards with 63.5% completed passes and five touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III leads the team in rushing yards with 290, while Travis Kelce caught 12 passes for a team-high 172 receiving yards. Defensively, Nick Bolton has a team-high 17 total tackles (eight of them solo).

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Chiefs have lost each of their last six games as road favorites.
• The Dolphins have won each of their last seven home openers against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight Sunday games.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last six Week 3 games against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven home games against AFC West opponents.
• The home team has won the first half in each of the Dolphins’ last four games.
• The Dolphins have won the first quarter in three of their last four games as home underdogs against AFC West opponents.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Dolphins have lost 17 of their last 18 games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have won 17 of their last 18 games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last four September games against AFC East opponents.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in each of their last four road games after coming off overtime.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last 10 games in Florida.
• The favorites have won the first half in seven of the Dolphins’ last eight games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last eight home games following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Ten of the Chiefs’ last 11 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in 15 of his last 16 appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 100+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Dolphins’ last six September home games.
• Malik Willis has recorded 197+ passing yards in each of his last four appearances as a starter.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 62+ rushing yards in each of his last 10 appearances with the Dolphins as underdogs on the East Coast.
• Greg Dulcich has recorded 24+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last five games played on the East Coast.
• Heading into Week 3, Bradley Pinion ranks T1st in the league for fumbles recovered (1) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in four of the Chiefs’ last five games in Florida.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last seven games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
• Kenneth Walker III has recorded 103+ rushing yards in each of his four previous September appearances against AFC opponents.
• Xavier Worthy has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in 11 of the Chiefs’ last 13 games as favorites following a win.
• Justin Fields has recorded 17+ completions in three of his last four September road appearances.
• Heading into Week 3, Kenneth Walker III ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (290) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 3, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in sacks (0.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 3, the Dolphins have recorded the longest kickoff return this season (79 yards).
• Chiefs – four different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Chiefs – four different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.

Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction

In this Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction, the Chiefs are coming as -10.5 road favorites. Both teams have started the season on completely opposite ways, as the Chiefs have been undefeated and have the third-best offense in the NFL with a +12 point differential, while the Dolphins have been winless and rank on the bottom-3 of the league both offensively and defensively, for a -18 point differential and have failed to cover the spread in both games. The Chiefs have also been dominating the Dolphins in recent years, having won all of their last five meetings and are 4-1 ATS, so I expect them to get the job done and cover the -10.5 spread on the road today.