Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Prediction 9/29/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Canadiens prediction for this NHL game on Tuesday, September 29th at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs were 32-36-14 last season and they finished with 78 points, which was last in the Atlantic Division. Toronto was six points behind the seventh place team and they were 31 points behind the Sabres in first. The Maple Leafs started the season with a 5-2 win over the Canadiens, but they were just 3-5 through eight games. Toronto picked up some momentum during December and part of January, but they fell apart after that point. The Maple Leafs scored 252 goals in the 25-26 season, which was 16th in the NHL, while they allowed 295 goals against, which was 31st. 

In the preseason, Toronto went 2-1-1, which was tied for third in the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs lost two games against the Canadiens, but they did pick up two wins over the Senators. Toronto is led by Willam Nylander, who had 30 goals and 49 assists, while Auston Matthews added 27 goals and 26 assists. The expected starting goalie for Toronto is Sergei Bobrovsky, who was 27-23-1 with a 3.07 goals against average and an .877 save percentage last season. 

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens went 48-24-10 last year and they finished third in the Atlantic Division with 106 points. Montreal was tied with Tampa Bay in the Atlantic, but lost the tiebreaker, while they were three points behind the Sabres in first. The Canadiens started the season with a 5-2 loss against the Maple Leafs, but they were 6-2 through eight games. Montreal defeated the Lightning and Sabres in the playoffs, but lost to the Hurricanes in five games in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Canadiens scored 279 goals last year, which was seventh, while they allowed 251 goals against, which was 16th. 

In the preseason, Montreal went 4-1, which was first in the Atlantic Division. The Canadiens picked up wins over the Maple Leafs (twice) and Senators (twice), while losing once to the Senators. Montreal is led by Nick Suzuki, who had 29 goals and 72 assists, while Cole Caufield added 51 goals and 37 assists. The expected starting goalie for Montreal is Jakub Dobes, who is 29-10-4 with a 2.78 goals against average and a .901 save percentage last year. 

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last 10 home openers.
• The Canadiens have lost each of their last eight road openers.
• The home team has covered the puck line in three of the Maple Leafs’ last four games.
• The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four road openers.
• The favorites have won the second period in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six games.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last six games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have won four of their last five games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Canadiens have covered the puck line in 20 of their last 21 games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have lost the first period in each of their last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last four home games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Canadiens’ last three road openers have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Canadiens’ last 12 games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine games as home favorites.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• William Nylander has scored at least one goal in each of his last five appearances with the Maple Leafs as home favorites.
• John Tavares has recorded an assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games as favorites.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

• Nick Suzuki has scored a goal in four of the Canadiens’ last five road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Lane Hutson has recorded at least one assist in each of the Canadiens’ last six games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Cole Caufield ranked 1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (12) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 31st in the league for goals against per game last season (3.60).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 8th in the league in penalty kill percentage last season (81.22%).
• The Montreal Canadiens ranked 7th in the league for goals per game last season (3.40).
• The Montreal Canadiens ranked T4th in the league in short handed goals allowed last season (4).

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Prediction 

Montreal comes into this matchup after a very successful 25-26 season, but they did lose to Toronto in the opener last year. The Canadiens have a ton of young talent, but I question their goaltending situation. Toronto was awful last season and they are under a ton of pressure, but they do have quite a bit of talent. The Maple Leafs picked up Bobrovsky in net, but he took a step back last year. I think we could see some scoring here, so I like the over in this one.