Northwestern vs Penn State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/2/26

In this article we will formulate a Northwestern vs Penn State prediction for this College Football game on Friday, October 2nd at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 5 matchup. 

Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview

The Northwestern Wildcats are 2-1 (0-1) this season after they lost to Indiana by a score of 29-23 last week. Northwestern trailed 12-0 at halftime, but they scored 23 points in the second half and nearly scored a huge upset. The Wildcats were out gained by a total of 472-325, went 4-9 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Aidan Chiles threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while Luke Dehnicke caught seven passes for 140 yards. Gavin Sawchuk rushed five times for 26 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Northwestern defeated Colorado by a score of 41-7 and South Dakota State by a score of 34-18. The Wildcats have scored 32.7 points per game with 269.0 passing yards and 146.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 18.0 points against per game this season. Aidan Chiles has thrown for 807 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions, while Griffin Wilde has 14 receptions for 245 yards and two scores this season. 

Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview

The Penn State Nittany Lions are 3-1 (0-1) this year after they lost to Wisconsin by a score of 24-20 last week. Penn State led 17-7 at halftime and 20-10 in the fourth quarter, but they allowed 14 points in the last 3:31 for the crushing defeat. The Nittany Lions were out gained by a total of 355-233, went 7-18 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the game. Rocco Becht threw for 114 yards and one interception, while Chase Sowell caught six passes for 70 yards. James Peoples rushed 14 times for 67 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Penn State defeated Buffalo by a score of 55-13 and Temple by a score of 27-9. The Nittany Lions have scored 36.8 points per game with 243.8 passing yards and 183.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 11.5 points against per game this season. Rocco Becht has thrown for 865 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception, while Koby Howard has 12 receptions for 344 yards and two scores this year. 

Why the Northwestern Wildcats will win

• Northwestern has won nine of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Penn State has lost seven of its last nine road games in October.
• Northwestern has covered the spread in each of its last four games.
• Penn State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six October games as a favorite.
• Northwestern has won the first quarter in each of its last four games in Illinois.
• Penn State has lost the first half in each of its last four October games as a road favorite.

Why the Penn State Nittany Lions will win

• The favorite has won each of Northwestern’s last 10 games.
• Northwestern has lost each of its last seven games as an underdog in Illinois.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the last six games between Penn State and Northwestern.
• Northwestern has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Penn State has won the first quarter in four of its last five games.
• Northwestern has lost the first half in each of its last 11 games as an underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Northwestern’s last six games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of Penn State’s last six games against teams from Illinois have gone UNDER the total points line.

Northwestern Wildcats Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Caleb Komolafe ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Penn State Nittany Lions Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Koby Howard ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (28.7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Northwestern ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
• Northwestern ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Penn State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
• Penn State ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.8).

Northwestern vs Penn State Prediction 

Penn State comes into this matchup after a brutal fourth quarter loss last week against Wisconsin and they will be on the road here. The Nittany Lions are 2-2 against the spread this year, but their defense has been pretty good. Northwestern is coming off of a narrow loss to Indiana last week and they have been pretty impressive early in the season. The Wildcats are getting great play from Chiles at the QB spot and with Penn State looking very average, I like Northwestern at home here.