Lightning vs Capitals Prediction 10/3/26 NHL Picks Today

The Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Saturday in NHL action at the Benchmark International Arena. Here’s a Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction. This article will include a Lightning vs Capitals Pick.

Washington Capitals Betting Preview

The Washington Capitals beat the Hurricanes and play the Penguins and Rangers next. The Capitals haven’t started 2-0 since the 2020-21 season.

The Washington Capitals are averaging 5 goals per game and are scoring 50 percent of their power play opportunities. Alex Tuch leads Washington with 2 goals, Dylan Strome has 2 assists, and Boone Jenner has 3 shots on goal. Defensively, the Washington Capitals are allowing 2 goals per game and are killing 83.3 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Logan Thompson has given up 2 goals on 33 shots faced.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Rangers, and they play the Flyers and Wild next. The Lightning hope to avoid back-to-back 0-2 starts to the season.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 1 goal per game and are scoring on 0 percent of their power-play opportunities. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 1 goal, Brayden Point has 1 assist, and Jake Guentzel has 4 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 5 goals per game and are killing 50 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 4 goals on 24 shots faced.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Capitals have lost six of their last seven road games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Lightning have won 13 of their last 16 home games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four road games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Capitals have lost the third period in each of their last seven road games when trailing after the second period.

Why the Washington Capitals will win

• The Capitals have won five of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have lost five of their last six games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 14 games.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the Lightning’s last 12 games.
• The Capitals have won the second period in each of their last seven night games against the Lightning when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Nine of the Capitals’ last 10 games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Six of the Lightning’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine games following a road loss.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in 18 of the Capitals’ last 19 games as underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Hagel has scored at least one goal in three of the Lightning’s last four games against the Capitals.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in five of the Lightning’s last six games against the Capitals.
• Nikita Kucherov ranked T1st in the league for multi-assist games (25) last season.

Washington Capitals Player Prop Facts

• Alex Tuch has scored at least one goal in four of his last five appearances against the Lightning.
• Tom Wilson has recorded an assist in each of the Capitals’ last six road games.
• Jakob Chychrun ranked 7th in the league for Game-Winning Goals (8) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning ranked 3rd in the league for goals against per game last season (2.79).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning ranked 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage last season (82.56%).
• The Washington Capitals ranked 7th in the league for goals against per game last season (2.90).
• The Washington Capitals ranked 25th in the league in power play percentage last season (17.84%).

Lightning vs Capitals Injury Report

The Capitals will be without Patrick Thomas and Rasmus Sandin.

The Lightning will be without Yanni Gourde and Dominic James.

Lightning vs Capitals Prediction

The Lightning should be favored at home with the rest advantage, and they usually rebound nicely from bad losses. However, as I said in yesterday’s write-up, the Capitals are a greatly improved team that could win the Metropolitan Division. We cashed on a nice underdog ticket, and I’m going to side with the Caps a lot whenever I can get favorable prices. The Capitals are a good hockey team. Maybe I’m getting greedy early in the season, but I want the Capitals again as a road dog.