Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 10/4/26 NFL Picks Today

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders meet in week 4 NFL action from Allegiant Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders prediction.

Kansas City Chiefs Recap

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game looking to add on to their 24-10 win over Miami last time out to sit at 3-0 on the year. After this game, KC will head home for a game against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Chiefs Looking To Stay Unbeaten

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 812 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 68.4% passing while Kenneth Walker III leads Kansas City in rushing with 360 yards and 2 touchdowns through 3 games this season. Emmett Johnson sits behind Walker on the ground with 56 yards and 0 TDs. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs in receiving with 231 yards and 14 catches along with 2 TDs, while Rashee Rice trails with 190 yards and 13 catches. On defense, Nick Bolton has a team-high 28 tackles while Kansas City’s defense as a whole has combined for 4 sacks and 3 interceptions through 3 games this season.

Las Vegas Raiders Recap

The Las Vegas Raiders come into this game looking to add on to their 35-27 win over New Orleans last time out to sit at 3-0 on the year. After this game, the Raiders will head on the road for a matchup against the New England Patriots.

Raiders Looking For Upset To Take AFC West Lead

Kirk Cousins has thrown for 661 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 67.4% passing while Ashton Jeanty leads Las Vegas in rushing with 206 yards and 0 touchdowns through 3 games this season. Mike Washington Jr. sits behind Jeanty on the ground with 102 yards and 1 TD. Tre Tucker leads the Raiders in receiving with 189 yards and 11 catches along with 1 TD, while Brock Bowers trails with 116 yards and 10 catches. On defense, Nakobe Dean has a team-high 27 tackles while Las Vegas’s defense as a whole has combined for 10 sacks and 4 interceptions through 3 games this season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

• The Chiefs have lost each of their last four games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Raiders have won each of their last three games as underdogs.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games without Jalen Royals.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games in October.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Week 4 games as road favorites.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in five of their last six games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Raiders have lost each of their last nine games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Chiefs have won each of their last nine Week 4 games.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as underdogs without Malcolm Koonce.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in five of their last six road games without Travis Kelce.
• The Raiders have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Week 4 games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games against the Raiders.
• The Raiders have lost the first half in each of their last eight October games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last six games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last six games between AFC West teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Raiders’ last eight Sunday games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Jalen Nailor has scored a touchdown in three of his last four Sunday appearances with his team as a home underdog.
• Michael Mayer has recorded 26+ receiving yards in five of his last six Sunday home appearances.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 230+ passing yards in seven of his last eight home appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in eight of his last nine October home appearances.
• Tre Tucker has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Raiders’ last five games as underdogs.
• Heading into Week 4, Hezekiah Masses ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (3) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Travis Kelce has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 11 October games as favorites.
• Kenneth Walker III has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six appearances against division opponents.
• Justin Fields has recorded 47+ rushing yards in six of his last seven October road appearances.
• Justin Fields has recorded 226+ passing yards in each of his last three Week 4 appearances.
• Xavier Worthy has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in 11 of the Chiefs’ last 14 games as favorites following a win.
• Justin Fields has recorded 20+ completions in each of his last three Week 4 appearances.
• Heading into Week 4, Kenneth Walker III ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (360) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Raiders – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Raiders – two different players have recorded 100+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Chiefs – three different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in average yards per punt (55.6) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

I’m on the Raiders and the points here. I think Las Vegas deserves a bit of respect for what they’ve been able to accomplish so far this season and while the Chiefs have looked solid in spots, they’ve also had some weaker competition as of late. I think the Raiders show up for this step up spot and at least keep it close. Give me the Raiders and the points.