Florida State vs Louisville Prediction Football Picks Today 10/9/26

In this article, we will formulate a Florida State vs Louisville Prediction for this College Football Week 6 matchup on Friday, October 9^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Louisville Cardinals Preview

Louisville has a 2-3 record and are coming off a 28-31 road loss against NC State. They will face Syracuse and Stanford next. Offensively, Louisville averages 38.6 points per game, ranking 25th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 29.2 points per game, which is 99th. Louisville averages 486 total yards per game (287.4 passing and 198.6 rushing), while allowing 423 total yards per game (156.2 rushing and 266.8 passing).

Lincoln Kienholz leads Louisville with 1,394 passing yards with 69.1% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Keyjuan Brown leads the team in rushing yards with 367, while Tre Richardson has a team-high 28 receptions for 445 receiving yards. Defensively, T.J. Capers has a team-high 38 total tackles (19 of them solo), while Clev Lubin leads the team with 3.5 sacks.

Florida State Seminoles Preview

Florida State has a 3-2 record and are coming off a 38-7 home win against Virginia. They will face Miami and Clemson next. Offensively, Florida State averages 33.2 points per game, ranking 58th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 21.6 points per game, which is 51st. Florida State averages 419 total yards per game (225 passing and 194 rushing), while allowing 384.8 total yards per game (119.2 rushing and 265.6 passing).

Ashton Daniels leads Florida State with 1,111 passing yards with 60.3% completed passes and 6 touchdowns, also adding a team-high 278 rushing yards. Duce Robinson has a team-high 15 receptions for 280 receiving yards. Defensively, CJ Richard Jr. has a team-high 31 total tackles (18 of them solo), while Ryan Kennedy leads the team with 4 sacks.

Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• The home team has won 10 of Florida State’s last 11 games.
• Florida State has lost each of its last seven games as a road underdog.
• Florida State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
• Louisville has covered the spread in six of its last seven games as a favorite against teams from Florida.
• Florida State has lost the first half in each of its last six games as a road underdog.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of Louisville’s last four games.

Why the Florida State Seminoles will win

• The underdog has won four of Louisville’s last six games at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
• Louisville has lost four of its last six games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six October games as a favorite.
• The underdog has covered the spread in six of Florida State’s last seven games.
• Louisville has lost the first half in each of its last seven games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Florida State’s last seven games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of Louisville’s last nine home games against teams from Florida have gone OVER the total points line.

Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Kaleb Beasley ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Florida State Seminoles Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Ashton Daniels ranks T3rd amongst FBS players for rushing touchdowns (9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Three of Louisville’s five games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – most amongst FBS teams.
• Louisville ranks T2nd among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (13.2).
• Florida State ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Florida State ranks 127th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (265.6).

Florida State vs Louisville Prediction

In this Florida State vs Louisville prediction, Louisville is coming as -5.5 home favorites. Florida State is coming off back-to-back wins where they held their opponents into just 14 points combined and have covered the spread in their only road game. On the flip side, Louisville has lost and failed to cover its last two games and have conceded 30+ points in their last three games, so I like the value with the road dog in this matchup. Take Florida State and grab those +5.5 points in this one.