Lightning vs Islanders Prediction 10/10/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Lightning vs Islanders Prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, October 10^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

New York Islanders Preview

The Islanders have 4 points this season with a 2-2-0 record and a 2-0-0 home record. They are 3-1 ATS and 2-2 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-1 home win over the Blackhawks and will face the Canucks and Senators next.

Offensively, the Islanders are averaging 3.25 goals per game and are scoring 20% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.00 goals per game and are killing 86.7% of their opponent’s power plays.

Bo Horvat leads the Islanders with 5 points, adding a team-high 4 goals, while Logan Stanley leads the team in assists with 4. Ilya Sorokin is the starting goalie for the Islanders, and he has a 2-1-0 record, with 1.01 GAA and .965 SV%. Semyon Varlamov is the backup goalie and he has a 0-1-0 record, with 3.03 GAA and .864 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning Preview

The Lightning have 6 points this season with a 3-1-0 record and a 0-1-0 away record. They are 2-2 ATS and 1-3 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 home win over the Wild and will face the Rangers and Kraken next.

Offensively, the Lightning are averaging 2.75 goals per game and are scoring 6.3% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.25 goals per game and are killing 77.8% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning with 6 points, adding a team-high 5 assists, while John Carlson leads the team in goals with 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the starting goalie for the Lightning, and he has a 2-1-0 record, with 2.05 GAA and .898 SV%. Dennis Hildeby is the backup goalie and he has a 1-0-0 record, with 2.01 GAA and .944 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders Betting Trends: October 10, 2026

Why the New York Islanders will win

• The Islanders have won eight of their last nine games as home underdogs following a home win.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last three games as road favorites following a win.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine road games.
• The Islanders have covered the puck line in 14 of their last 15 games as home underdogs following a home win.
• The home team has won the first period in each of the Lightning’s last four games.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Islanders have lost each of their last four night games following a win.
• The Lightning have won each of their last three games.
• The Islanders have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games following a win.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in five of their last six games against the Islanders following a home win.
• The Lightning have won the third period in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Lightning’s last eight games as favorites following a home win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Seven of the last eight games between the Lightning and Islanders have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Islanders’ last five home games against the Lightning.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in four of the Lightning’s last five games as road favorites against the Islanders.

New York Islanders Player Prop Facts

• Bo Horvat has scored at least one goal in five of the Islanders’ last six games as home underdogs.
• Mathew Barzal has recorded an assist in six of his last seven appearances in night games.
• Bo Horvat ranks T1st in the league for Power Play Goals (3) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in five of the Lightning’s last six road games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Jake Guentzel has recorded at least one assist in seven of his last eight road appearances against the Islanders.
• Brandon Hagel has recorded at least three shots in each of his last eight appearances – equal-longest active streak in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Islanders rank T3rd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.00).
• The New York Islanders rank T1st in the league in short handed goals this season (2).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 30th in the league in power play percentage this season (6.25%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T6th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.25).

Lightning vs Islanders Prediction

The Islanders have won their last three meetings against the Lightning and are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings in New York.

In this Lightning vs Islanders Prediction, the Lightning are coming as -165 road favorites. The Lightning are on a roll with three consecutive wins after losing their season opener and are playing a deadly defense, having conceded just four goals in those three games. The Islanders have also been playing very good defense this season and both teams allow just 4.2 goals per game combined this season. The under is also 6-1 in their last 7 head-to-head meetings, so I expect a low-scoring affair today. Take the under 5.5 in this one.