Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) vs. USC Trojans (6-2)
October 31, 2026 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: USC Trojans 6.5 / Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5; Over/Under: 51.5
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USC vs Ohio State Prediction
I understand points with USC at home are attractive, but I’m going to back Ohio State -6.5 on Saturday night. USC is 2-6 ATS on the season and has come up small in its biggest games. The Trojans just scored seven points against Wisconsin and lost to Oregon earlier in the season.
Ohio State has covered five of its seven games and has been rather consistent on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes are 11th in total offense and seventh in total defense. USC has issues running the football and can be hit or miss defensively. The Trojans are 77th in pass defense and 78th in scoring defense. Sure, playing at home may help, but I need to see USC show up against a quality opponent before I can trust this squad. Ohio State is far more trustworthy. I’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes.
Why the USC Trojans will win
- USC has won 11 of its last 12 home games.
- Ohio State has lost three of its last four games as a top-3 AP-ranked team.
- USC has covered the spread in each of its last four October games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- The team ranked 2nd in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- USC has won the first quarter in three of its last four games as an underdog against top-5 AP-ranked teams.
- USC has won the first half in five of its last six October home games against AP-ranked teams.
Why the Ohio State Buckeyes will win
- Ohio State has won each of its last 22 road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- USC has lost each of its last nine October games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
- Ohio State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight road games as a top-5 AP-ranked team.
- USC has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
- Ohio State has won the first quarter in each of its last 13 road games in October.
- Ohio State has won the first half in each of its last 15 games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Ohio State’s last eight road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of USC’s last nine games against AP-ranked teams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum have gone OVER the total points line.
USC Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 9, Jayden Maiava ranks 3rd among FBS players for passing yards (2303) this season.
Ohio State Buckeyes Player Prop Facts
- Bo Jackson has recorded 50+ rushing yards in 14 consecutive games- the longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 9.
Matchup/League Facts
- USC ranks T4th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (199).
- USC ranks 10th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (303.6).
- Ohio State has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
- Ohio State has given up the largest 3rd quarter lead to win a game this season – 20 points vs Texas.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
The Ohio State Buckeyes beat Maryland and Indiana, and they play Oregon next. The Ohio State Buckeyes have won 5 straight games. Julian Sayin is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,007 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Jeremiah Smith and Devin McCuin have combined for 1,252 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, while Chris Henry Jr. has 6 receptions.
The Ohio State Buckeyes’ ground game is averaging 153.1 yards per contest, and Bo Jackson leads the way with 516 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Ohio State is allowing 13.4 points and 264.3 yards per game. Earl Little Jr. leads the Ohio State Buckeyes with 38 tackles, Kenyatta Jackson Jr. has 3 sacks, and Jaylen McClain has 2 interceptions.
USC Trojans Betting Preview
The USC Trojans beat Penn State, lost to Wisconsin, and they play Indiana next. The USC Trojans have won 10 of their last 14 games. Jayden Maiava is completing 66.8 percent of his passes for 2,302 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Trent Mosley have combined for 854 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, while Zacharyus Williams has 20 receptions.
The USC Trojans’ ground game is averaging 131.1 yards per contest, and King Miller leads the way with 602 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, USC is allowing 25 points and 331.3 yards per game. Deven Bryant leads the USC Trojans with 44 tackles, Kennedy Urlacher has 3 sacks, and Prophet Brown has 2 interceptions.
