New Mexico Lobos (6-1) vs. San José State Spartans (4-4)
October 31, 2026 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: San José State Spartans 470 / New Mexico Lobos -650; Over/Under: 42.5
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New Mexico vs San Jose State Prediction
In this New Mexico vs San Jose State prediction, New Mexico is coming as -14.5 road favorites. New Mexico has been excellent this season with just one loss and is also 6-1 ATS, while having the best defense in the entire country and the 19th-best offense, for a dominating +25.7 point differential. On the flip side, San Jose is just 1-2 at home this season and has been struggling offensively lately, having scored 13 points or less in three of its last five and in its last two at home. Take New Mexico and lay the -14.5 points in this one.
San Jose State Spartans Preview
San Jose State has a 4-4 record and a 2-2 record in the Mountain West. They are coming off a 28-13 road win against Nevada and will face Northern Illinois and Air Force next.
Offensively, San Jose State averages 20.4 points per game, ranking 117th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 22.5 points per game, which is 55th. San Jose State averages 362.1 total yards per game (232.6 passing and 129.5 rushing), while allowing 379.9 total yards per game (142.8 rushing and 237.1 passing).
Luke Weaver leads San Jose State with 1,620 passing yards with 63.0% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Jabari Bates leads the team in rushing yards with 586, while Carson Clark has a team-high 551 receiving yards and 47 receptions. Defensively, Dylan Lee has a team-high 71 total tackles (38 of them solo), while Jayland McGlothen leads the team with 6 sacks.
New Mexico Lobos Preview
New Mexico has a 6-1 record and a 3-0 record in the Mountain West. They are coming off a 21-16 home win against North Dakota State and will face Nevada and UNLV next.
Offensively, New Mexico averages 37 points per game, ranking 19th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 11.3 points per game, which is 1st. New Mexico averages 363.9 total yards per game (153.3 passing and 210.6 rushing), while allowing 261 total yards per game (86.4 rushing and 174.6 passing).
Toa Fa’avae leads New Mexico with 790 passing yards with 56.3% completed passes and 5 touchdowns. Scottre Humphrey leads the team in rushing yards with 453, while Cade Keith has a team-high 265 receiving yards and 20 receptions. Defensively, Mercury Swaim has a team-high 43 total tackles (21 of them solo), while Brett Karhu leads the team with 5 sacks.
New Mexico Lobos @ San Jose State Spartans Betting Trends: Week 9
Why the San Jose State Spartans will win
- San Jose State has won 10 of its last 11 October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico has lost four of its last six October games as a road favorite.
- San Jose State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against teams from New Mexico.
- New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games in October.
- The home team has won the first quarter in each of the last five games between New Mexico and San Jose State.
- New Mexico has lost the first half in each of its last seven road games in October.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- New Mexico has won each of its last nine games against conference opponents.
- San Jose State has lost each of its last 14 games as an underdog in California.
- The road team has covered the spread in eight of San Jose State’s last nine games.
- San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five home games.
- New Mexico has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has won the first half in 10 of New Mexico’s last 11 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of San Jose State’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of New Mexico’s last six games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
San Jose State Spartans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 9, Carson Clark leads the Mountain West Conference for receiving yards (551) this season.
New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 9, Tavian Combs ranks T3rd amongst FBS players for interceptions (4) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- San Jose State ranks 137th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (1.3).
- San Jose State ranks 136th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (26:04).
- New Mexico ranks 1st among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (11.3).
- New Mexico has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
Nikos Lagouretos's Free Pick: New Mexico -14.5
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