North Dakota State vs Hawaii Prediction Football Picks Today 11/14/26

North Dakota State vs Hawaii Prediction

In this North Dakota State vs Hawaii prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14^th, North Dakota State is coming as -6.5 road favorites. North Dakota State has been the better team this season with more than twice the number of total wins than Hawaii but they are just 2-2 in their last four games and 1-3 against the spread, having lost their last two road games and have scored just 23 total points combined. On the flip side, Hawaii has managed to string back-to-back wins but they still have to go up against the second-best defense in the entire nation, so I don’t expect much scoring today. Both teams are 14-4 to the under combined this season, so I will go under the 38.5 points in this one.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Preview

Hawaii has a 3-6 record and a 2-4 conference record, sitting on the 7th place of the Mountain West, while having a 1-3 home record and a 2-3 away record. They are coming off a 17-14 road win against UTEP, following a 56-21 road win against Northern Illinois and a 10-21 home loss against New Mexico, and will face Nevada and Sacramento State next.

Offensively, Hawaii averages 20.3 points per game, while defensively, they allow 23.3 points per game. Hawaii averages 371.9 total yards per game (278.8 passing and 93.1 rushing), while allowing 359.3 total yards per game (171 rushing and 188.3 passing). They average 71.9 plays per game and 5.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing 60.1 plays per game and 6 yards per play on defense. Hawaii averages 21.3 first downs per game on offense and 18.8 first downs per game on defense. They average 6.4 yards per pass attempt and 3.2 yards per rush attempt. Hawai’i has scored 21 touchdowns this season (11 passing and 10 rushing). They are converting 40.85% of their third downs and 57.14% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 7 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 6 passes.

Micah Alejado leads Hawaii with 2,489 passing yards with 60.6% completed passes and 10 touchdowns. DeVon Rice leads the team in rushing yards with 444, while Kainoa Carvalho has a team-high 421 receiving yards and 38 receptions. Defensively, Jamih Otis has a team-high 64 total tackles (30 of them solo), while Noah Wily leads the team with 2.5 sacks.

North Dakota State Bison Preview

North Dakota State has a 7-2 record and a 4-2 conference record, sitting on the 3rd place of the Mountain West, while having a 5-0 home record and a 2-2 away record. They are coming off a 31-7 home win against UTEP, following a 16-21 road loss against New Mexico and a 31-17 home win against Nevada, and will face Northern Illinois and San José State next.

Offensively, North Dakota State averages 28.1 points per game, while defensively, they allow 11.9 points per game. North Dakota State averages 351.8 total yards per game (194.3 passing and 157.4 rushing), while allowing 248.8 total yards per game (124.3 rushing and 124.4 passing). They average 65.3 plays per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 57 plays per game and 4.4 yards per play on defense. North Dakota State averages 18.8 first downs per game on offense and 14 first downs per game on defense. They average 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 4 yards per rush attempt. North Dakota State has scored 31 touchdowns this season (13 passing and 13 rushing). They are converting 39.67% of their third downs and 63.16% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 8 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 14 passes.

Nathan Hayes leads North Dakota State with 1,710 passing yards with 63.6% completed passes and 13 touchdowns. Myles Mitchell leads the team in rushing yards with 403, while Jackson Williams has a team-high 614 receiving yards and 42 receptions. Defensively, Donovan Woolen has a team-high 66 total tackles (35 of them solo), while Kelton McCaslin leads the team with 5 sacks.

North Dakota State Bison @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will win

• Hawaii has won five of its last six November games as a home underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Hawaii has covered the spread in each of its last nine November games at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
• North Dakota State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three road games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the North Dakota State Bison will win

• The road team has won each of Hawaii’s last three games.
• Hawaii has lost each of its last three games against conference opponents at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
• Hawaii has lost the first half in four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Hawaii’s last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of North Dakota State’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Wynden Ho’ohuli/Denver Harris/Elijah Palmer/Brett Karhu lead the Mountain West Conference for forced fumbles (3) this season.

North Dakota State Bison Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Marion Moore leads the Mountain West Conference for interceptions (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Hawaii ranks T124th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (3.7).
• Hawaii ranks 17th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (278.8).
• North Dakota State ranks 1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (62.5).
• North Dakota State ranks 2nd among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (11.9).