Miami vs Alabama 9/4/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The Alabama Crimson Tide meet the Miami Hurricanes in a marquee week 1 college football matchup from Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The Miami Hurricanes come into the 2021 season looking to build off of a solid 2020 season under Manny Diaz, where the ‘Canes finished 8-3 including a 7-2 mark in ACC play, culminating in a 37-34 loss in the Cheez-It Bowl to Oklahoma State. D’Eriq King is still in the mix under center for Miami, but he’s still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the bowl game, so it’s unknown if he’ll be ready in time for the opening game, leaving potential QB duties to freshman Tyler Van Dyke. King’s health is essential as one of the better rushing threats on the team, but Cam’Ron Harris had a team-high 643 rushing yards and 10 ground TDs last season while Donald Chaney is an option as well. Brevin Jordan is no longer a Hurricane, but the receiving corps is still loaded with Will Mallory at tight end to replace Jordan as well as receivers like Mike Harley, Mark Pope and Dee Wiggins alongside Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo. The defensive line has to retool after losing Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, but senior Zach McCloud, freshman Jahfari Harvey and Tennessee transfer Deandre Johnson have the task of following up last year’s defensive production up front as well as Jonathan Ford and Nesta Silvera on the inside. Gilbert Frierson will lead the charge at linebacker after finishing 3^rd on the team in tackles while the secondary retains Bubba Bolding after a 74 tackle season and Amari Carter is also back after picking up 53 stops last year at safety. DJ Ivey is expected to lead the way at one corner spot while Tyrique Stevenson transfers in from Georgia to bolster the rotation of DBs for Miami. As a team, Miami averaged 34 PPG while allowing 27 PPG last season.

The Alabama Crimson Tide come in with a familiar title, the defending national champions after finishing the year 13-0 with wins over Notre Dame and Ohio State to claim the college football championship. Now the task remains to replace some of the best offensive players from the Tide in recent memory, as Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris and Alex Leatherwood all went pro. Bryce Young is expected to take over the quarterback duties for the Crimson Tide, but it will take some time for Young to get truly comfortable within the Tide’s system under a new offensive co-ordinator as Steve Sarkisian is now the head coach at Texas. Brian Robinson is expected to head man the running back duties for the Tide, while Jase McClellen and Roydell Williams will also get their fair share of touches at some point this season. John Metchie might be the lynchpin to carrying over the offensive success as he’s really the Alabama receiver that not many people were talking about despite finishing second on the team with 55 catches for 916 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 16.7 yards per catch. There are also lots of up and coming pieces to like with Alabama, such as Slade Bolden, Javon Baker, freshman Agiye Hall and Traeshon Holden. Jahleel Billingsley and Cameron Latu are also options for Alabama at tight end. On defense, Dylan Moses is gone at linebacker, but Christian Harris is thanfully back after finishing second on the team in tackles while Christopher Allen and Will Anderson will flank Harris over the course of the season. Tennessee transfer Henry To’o To’o is also an x-factor that can’t and shouldn’t be forgotten about. On the defensive line, Christian Barmore is no more, but Phidarian Mathis and Tim Smith are back to battle for one end spot and DJ Dale and LaBryan Ray are both back at nose tackle and the other defensive end spot respectively. The secondary lost Patrick Surtain, but the other four starters from last year’s unit are back, including Malachi Moore at safety, Josh Jobe at corner as well as three of the top five tacklers from last year’s squad in Jordan Battle, DeMarcco Hellams and Daniel Wright. As a team, Alabama averaged 48.5 PPG while allowing 19.4 PPG last season.

Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games played at home and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall while the under is 5-2 in their last 7 week 1 matchups. Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 week 1 matchups and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on Saturday while the over is 8-4 in their last 12 Saturday road games.

This is the game that’s getting a lot of attention, but for good reason as this has marquee heavyweight tilt written all over it. With that said, Alabama usually comes out of the gates strong defensively and I think Miami will want to send a message as well that they’re for real this season. I think a lower-scoring battle could be on the cards here, so give me the under here.