Texas State vs Baylor 9/4/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The Texas State Bobcats meet the Baylor Bears in week 1 college football action from Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium on Saturday night.

The Baylor Bears will look to move on from 2020 after a disappointing 2-7 record in Baylor’s first season under Dave Aranda. Charlie Brewer transferred to Utah, leaving the job to either Jacob Zeno or Gerry Bohanon and potentially true freshman Kyron Drones. John Lovett left Baylor’s backfield but Qualan Jones and Trestan Ebner make up a formidable pairing at running back while Craig Williams should factor in as well after averaging 7.5 yards per carry in just four games. Baylor’s strength offensively lies in the receiving corps with the likes of RJ Sneed, Gavin Holmes and Tyquan Thornton while Ben Sims also returns at tight end to help out Baylor in terms of moving the football after finishing near the bottom of the country in total offense last season. Defensively, Terrel Bernard is back as well as Dillon Doyle at linebacker after Bernard spent half of last year recovering from injury while Doyle finished second on the Bears with 56 tackles. The Bears’ line is also massive, with LSU transfer Siaki Ika coming into the fold at 6’4” and 350 pounds. TJ Franklin and Ryan Miller are also alongside Ika on the defensive line and should create a formidable push up front this season. In the secondary, all five starters are back including leading tackler Jalen Pitre at safety, JT Woods and Christian Morgan are also back at safety as is Jairon McVea while Raleigh Texada headlines the group of corners for Baylor this season. As a team, Baylor averaged 23.3 PPG while allowing 29.2 PPG last season.

The Texas State Bobcats sill be looking to turn things around after finishing just 2-10 last season including 2-6 in Sun Belt conference play. Brady McBride is back to lead the charge at QB for the Bobcats, but it won’t be a given as Ty Evans transfers in from NC State to battle for the starting gig. Brock Sturges returns to Texas State’s backfield after logging 532 yards and 5 TDs on the ground last year, as is Calvin Hill who put up 528 rushing yards and 5 TDs as well. Jahmyl Jeter is also in to bolster Texas State’s ground game this season. As far as receivers go, Marcell Barbee is back for Texas State after putting up 584 yards and 10 TDs last season which will be key considering the Bobcats lost Jah’Marae Sheread to the transfer portal and Jeremiah Haydel is done with the program. On defense, there’s experience returning, but experience from a defense that finished last in the conference allowing 495 yards and 38.2 points per game last season. Gjemar Daniels anchors the middle of the defensive line while Nico Ezidore will be the lead man alongside Texas Tech transfer Nick McCann. Sione Tupou is back at linebacker after recording 64 tackles last season while Jarron Morris is back in Texas State’s secondary after finishing all-conference in 2020 with 4 interceptions and 64 tackles. Kevin Anderson and Zion Childress will also give Texas State some experience at safety as well this season. As a team, Texas State averaged 27.7 PPG and allowed 38.2 PPG last season.

Baylor is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 week 1 matchups and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday road games. Texas State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.

I’m not a fan of laying big numbers like these with a program like Baylor that struggled last season. However, there’s been some learning under Dave Aranda and I think the Baylor bunch is now comfortable under their new head coach. Simply put, this game is about a big school with bigger and better players compared to the little brother in Texas State. I this the Bobcats show some fight early, but in the end, Baylor is simply too much. I’ll lay the points with the Bears here.