Virginia Tech vs North Carolina 9/3/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The Virginia Tech Hokies meet the North Carolina Tar Heels in an ACC week 1 college football matchup from Lane Stadium on Friday.

The North Carolina Tar Heels will be out to build on another successful campaign under Mack Brown, finishing 8-4 with a 7-3 mark in ACC conference play, culminating in a 41-27 loss to Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl. Sam Howell is back at QB after being the main man in the UNC offense that averaged 537 yards and 41.7 PPG last season, and there’s a lot of Heisman and potential first overall pick rumblings around Howell after throwing for 3,586 yards, 30 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 68.1% passing last year. There’s going to be some work needed to build around Howell early as UNC’s top two running backs and two top receivers are all in the NFL. Josh Downs and Khafre Brown are in as the speed receivers while Beau Corrales and Garrett Walston bring experience to the corps. The Tar Heels also brought in grad transfer Ty Chandler who rushed for over 2,000 yards in his four years with the Tennessee Volunteers. The plus for Howell and the rest of the offense is that the entire offensive line is back, all six top linemen. On defense, the first order of business will be replacing Chazz Surratt who was North Carolina’s leading tackler last season. Tomon Fox and Jeremiah Gemmel are back to anchor the defense at linebacker while Raymond Vohasek and Toman Fox are back to lead the charge up front for the UNC defense. The secondary might be UNC’s strongest asset on that side of the ball, boasting one of the best secondary units in the conference with corners like Storm Duck, Tony Grimes and Kyler McMichael while Trey Morrison holds down the fort at safety. As a team, North Carolina averaged 41.7 PPG while allowing 29.4 PPG last season.

The Virginia Tech Hokies will hope for a better outcome in 2021 after going 5-6 under Justin Fuente in 2020. Braxton Burmeister is the man under center for the Hokies after Hendon Hooker and Quincy Patterson transferred out of the program. The key for Burmeister will be staying healthy as the Hokies have enough replacing to do on offense that quarterback doesn’t need to be another issue. Khalil Herbert’s also gone from the program, leaving running back duties to Jalen Holston and Raheem Blackshear. The receiving corps might be the Hokies’ strength on offense, as Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson return after combining for 72 catches, over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs last season while James Mitchell and Nick Gallo lead the way for V-Tech’s tight ends. Defensively, something has to change after the Hokies allowed their most points per game in a season (32.1) since 1973. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to head man Virginia Tech’s interior while Amare Barno returns after leading the ACC with 16 TFLs last season. Dax Hollifield and Alan Tisdale make up a formidable tandem at linebacker while the secondary features a returning Jermaine Waller who hopes to have a clean bill of health, Dorian Strong, Chamarri Conner, Tae Daley from Vanderbilt and Keonta Jenkins. The pieces are there for Virginia Tech it’s just about making them gel in year two. As a team, Virginia Tech averaged 31.1 PPG while allowing 32.1 PPG last season.

North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the over is 11-4 in their last 15 road games. Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the under is 5-2 in their last 7 conference games.

Last year’s matchup was an offensive showcase and I get the Tar Heels being favored here with Howell under center. However, the Hokies are no slouch at home and both teams lost some considerable talent coming into this year. I’m not just ready to lay almost a touchdown on the road just because UNC has Sam Howell. Virginia Tech can battle here and has the horses to hang with UNC offensively. Can I see UNC winning this on the road? Absolutely. But a 3-4 point win seems more realistic, not this many. Give me Virginia Tech and the points here.