North Carolina vs Duke 10/2/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The North Carolina Tar Heels meet the Duke Blue Devils Saturday in ACC week 5 college football action at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. The Duke Blue Devils look for another win to build on their three-game winning streak. The North Carolina Tar Heels look for a win to get a game above a .500 record. 

The Duke Blue Devils have lost each of their last four road games. Gunnar Holmberg is completing 72.1 percent of his passes for 1,140 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Jake Bobo and Jalon Calhoun have combined for 607 receiving yards and one touchdown while Mataeo Durant has 11 receptions. The Duke Blue Devils ground game is averaging 251 yards per contest, and Durant leads the way with 522 yards and eight touchdowns. Defensively, Duke is allowing 26 points and 422.3 yards per game. Shaka Heyward leads the Duke Blue Devils with 41 tackles, RJ Oben has one sack and Lummie Young IV has one interception. 

The North Carolina Tar Heels have won seven of their last eight home games. Sam Howell is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,173 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. Josh Downs and Emery Simmons have combined for 681 receiving yards and six touchdowns while Antoine Green has eight receptions. The North Carolina Tar Heels ground game is averaging 200.5 yards per contest, and Ty Chandler leads the way with 370 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 29.5 points and 383.8 yards per game. Jeremiah Gemmel leads the North Carolina Tar Heels with 21 tackles, Kaimon Rucker has 2.5 sacks and Ja’Qurious Conley has two interceptions.

The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The over is 18-7-1 in Blue Devils last 26 games overall. The over is 5-1 in Tar Heels last 6 games overall. The Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the better team and should be favored, but they’ve now lost twice in the favorite role and were just dominated by a subpar Georgia Tech squad. The Duke Blue Devils haven’t had any covering success this season, but they’re seventh in the country in total offense and have quietly won three straight games. Duke is better than people give credit for, something I’ve said a few times already this season. This is also a rivalry game where points are valuable. Give me Duke and the boatload of points.