Arkansas State vs Troy 11/26/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Troy Trojans and the Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Sun Belt conference college football action from Centennial Bank Stadium on Saturday.

The Troy Trojans will look to build on their 34-16 win over Louisiana-Monroe last time out. Gunnar Watson has thrown for 2,243 yards, 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on 61.4% passing while DK Billingsley and Kimani Vidal have combined for 1,345 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Tez Johnson has a team-high 734 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns while RaJae’ Johnson has 437 receiving yards with 3 touchdowns and Jabre Barber and Deshon Stoudemire each have 350+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Carlton Martial has a team-high 106 total tackles while T.J. Jackson has a team-high 7 sacks and Richard Jibunor has 6 sacks this season.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will hope to bounce back from a 16-13 win over Texas State in their last game. James Blackman has thrown for 2,251 yards, 14 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 65.1% passing while Johnnie Lang leads the Red Wolves on the ground with 399 rushing yards and 3 TDs and Brian Snead has 299 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Seydou Traore has a team-high 46 grabs for 611 receiving yards and 4 TDs while Jeff Forman has 464 receiving yards with 4 scores and Champ Flemings has 35 grabs for 437 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Jordan Carmouche has a team-high 75 total tackles while Kivon Bennett has a team-high 3.5 sacks and Arkansas State as a team has 20 sacks and 5 interceptions this season.

Troy is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Arkansas State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 11-3 in their last 14 conference games.

I get the case to make for a home underdog like Arkansas State, but the problem for the Red Wolves is still very much a lack of defense and the fact that Troy still has something to play for, with a spot in the Sun Belt title game resting on them winning this game. I just don’t see a way that Arkansas State matches Troy’s intensity and I think over the course of the game, A-State pulls away to get a big win. Give me Troy laying the points.