NCAA Tournament: St. Mary’s vs Indiana 3/17/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The St. Mary’s Gaels and Indiana Hoosiers will square off at the Moda Center this Thursday night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament – East Division.

The 12-seed Indiana Hoosiers improved to 21-13 on the season after defeating the 12-seed Wyoming Cowboys, 66-58, this past Tuesday night in a First Four matchups of the NCAA Tournament. Indiana was outstanding on the defensive end against Wyoming, winning the turnover battle by an 18-8 margin, and was able to hold off the Cowboys for the victory after taking a 52-44 lead. Indiana shot 41.9% from the field & 15.4% shooting from beyond the arc while allowing Wyoming to shoot 43.5% from the field & 15.4% from beyond the arc. Leading the way for the Hoosiers was Trayce Jackson-Davis who had 29 points, 9 rebounds, & 1 block.

Coming into their game against Wyoming, Indiana was averaging 71.5 ppg on 45.9% shooting from the field. The Hoosiers were averaging 6.1 three-pointers per game on 33.9% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Indiana has been led by Trayce Jackson-Davis (18.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.4 bpg), Xavier Johnson (12.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.0 apg, 1.2 spg), Race Thompson (11.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 spg), Parker Stewart (6.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.0 apg), & Miller Kopp (6.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.1 apg).

Defensively, prior to their game against Wyoming, Indiana was holding their opponents to an average of 65.9 ppg on 39.1% shooting from the field. The Hoosiers had a rebound margin of 2.8 and a turnover margin of 0.1.

The 5-seed St. Mary’s Gaels finished their regular season with an overall record of 25-7 while finishing West Coast Conference with a 12-3 record. Saint Mary’s earned a 2-seed in the WCC Championship and defeated Santa Clara by a 75-72 margin in the Semifinals, however, was not able to take home the Championship after losing to the 1-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in the finals by an 82-69 margin. St. Mary’s went 12-3 in their non-conference schedule and picked up plenty of signature wins including victories over Oregon, Notre Dame, Yale, Santa Clara, & Gonzaga.

On the season, St. Mary’s is averaging 69.8 ppg on 46.3% shooting from the field. The Gaels are averaging 7.2 three-pointers per game on 35.0% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, St. Mary’s has been led by Matthias Tass (12.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.0 apg), Tommy Kuhse (12.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.6 apg), Logan Johnson (11.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.0 spg), & Alex Ducas (10.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg).

Defensively, St. Mary’s is holding their opponents to an average of 60.5 ppg on 42.6% shooting from the field. The Gaels have a rebound margin of 4.2 and a turnover margin of 1.5.

The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss while the Gaels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

St. Mary’s has been led by their defense this season which ranks 12^th in scoring defense & 140^th in defensive FG%, however, although the Gaels have shot the ball well, St. Mary’s can struggle to put up points on the scoreboard as they rank just 209^th in scoring offense. Indiana has been solid on both ends of the court this season as the Hoosiers come into this game ranked 75^th in FG%, t-78^th in scoring defense, & 17^th in defensive FG%.

Saint Mary’s is a solid team, however, this is an offense that can struggle at times, and I think is going to have issues putting points up on the board against a very good Indiana defense. Indiana has been playing some of it’s best basketball of the season as of late which includes wins against Michigan & Illinois in the Big Ten Championship and as I think Trayce Jackson-Davis will be able to carry the Indiana offense in this one, I think the play here is to take the Hoosiers and the points.