Alabama State vs St. Francis (PA) Prediction 3/18/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The Saint Francis PA Red Flash and the Alabama State Hornets meet Tuesday in NCAA Tournament First Four college basketball action from UD Arena. Here’s an Alabama State vs St. Francis (PA) Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Alabama State vs St. Francis (PA) pick.

Saint Francis PA Red Flash Betting Preview

The Red Flash had a pretty rough season overall. That said, St. Francis did get it going in mid-February and finished strong. The Flash opened on a 5-11 run through their first 16 outings, taking losses to Dayton, Clemson, Penn State, Mount St. Mary’s, Georgetown, Radford, Niagara, Maryland, Robert Morris, Central Connecticut and Stonehill during that time. A 5-4 run came next with wins over Mercyhurst, Fairleigh Dickinson, Long Island U, Le Moyne and Chicago State among losses to LIU, Wagner (twice) and Mercyhurst, then two more losses to Stonehill and Central Connecticut. Since then however, St. Francis PA has rattled off six straight wins over Le Moyne, Fairleigh Dickinson, Chicago State, Wagner, Long Island U and Central Connecticut. That gives the Red Flash a 16-17 overall record on the season so far.

In their last outing versus Central Connecticut State, the Red Flash were able to punch their ticket to the First Four thanks to a wild victory. St. Francis PA was all tied up 20-20 at the break, then hit a 26-23 run through a wild finish during a 46-43 thriller. The only player on the team to finish in double-digits was Juan Cranford with 14 points, four rebounds, one assist and one steal in 33 minutes of work. Valentino Pinedo got close with nine points, four rebounds and two steals, while both Jeremy Clayville and Wisler Sanon (five rebounds) each notched three points off the bench during the victory.

Alabama State Hornets Betting Preview

Over on the Alabama State side, they similarly had a rough start to the season but caught fire in early February. The Hornets limped to a 4-9 opening run through their first 13 outings though, beating only Virginia Lynchburg, Omaha, Lamar and TN-Martin in that stretch. Wins over MS Valley State, AR-Pine bluff, Alabama A&M and Prairie View A&M came in the next six (with losses to Jackson State and Alcorn State), then losses to Texas Southern and Bethune-Cookman. Alabama State has only lost two games since then versus Grambling and Bethune-Cookman. Otherwise it’s been wins over Florida A&M, Southern, AR-Pine Bluff, MS Valley State, Florida A&M, Alabama A&M, Southern, Grambling, Texas Southern, Grambling again and Jackson State. In total the Hornets have a 19-15 overall record though 34 games this year.

Matched up against Jackson State in the SWAC Tournament Final, the Hornets were trailing 26-25 going into the second half. Alabama State hit a 35-30 run the rest of the way during a win 60-56 in the end. CJ Hines was the only double-digit scorer on the team with 20 points, three rebounds, three steals and two assists. TJ Madlock added 12 rebounds with seven points, three assists and three steals. Tops off the bench was Shawn Fulcher with his seven points and three rebounds in 12 minutes of work on the floor.

Why the Alabama State Hornets will win

• Alabama State has won each of its last six games.
• Saint Francis has lost 17 of its last 19 night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Alabama State has won the first half in six of its last seven night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Saint Francis Red Flash will win

• Alabama State has lost 59 of its last 63 night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Saint Francis has won each of its last six games.
• Alabama State has lost the first half in 14 of its last 15 Tuesday games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of Alabama State’s last 10 night games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 143+ points.
• Five of Saint Francis’ last six games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 147+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Alabama State ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for turnover percentage this season (11.4%).
• Alabama State ranks T6th among Division 1 teams for turnovers per game this season (9.2).
• Saint Francis ranks 359th among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (13.5).
• Saint Francis ranks 357th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (9.9).

Alabama State vs St. Francis (PA) Prediction

I’ll lean toward Alabama State. This should be a pretty fun matchup between a pair of plucky teams, though. The Hornets shot a miserable 33.8 percent from the field with a 44-36 rebounding deficit in their conference championship game versus Jackson State. The real difference in that game was Alabama State’s 18 points off 14 Tigers turnovers. The Hornets have scored below 67 points in four of the last five games, but they’ve also held opponents to fewer than 66 points in four of those five in order to get the wins.

St. Francis PA is in a similar boat; they’ve got below 59 points in two of the last three and have been getting wins thanks to defense—or persistence in overtime periods—lately. The conventional wisdom points to a lower total here in a gritty (and at times sloppy) game. Should be a fun one.