Arizona vs UCF Prediction 3/12/26 College Basketball Picks Today

The Central Florida Knights and the Arizona Wildcats meet Thursday in Big 12 Tournament college basketball action from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. Here’s an Arizona vs UCF prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Arizona vs Central Florida pick.

UCF Knights Betting Preview

The Knights were sitting at 17-4 through their first 21 games as the month of February began. The next three outings were losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, then came wins over TCU, Utah and BYU in the three after that. Following three more losses to Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, the Knights took out Cincinnati on Wednesday for a 21-10 overall record so far.

On Wednesday versus Cincinnati in the tournament matchup, the Knights were down by one point 27-26 going into the second half. UCF managed to fight back and force overtime with a 32-31 run from there. After the extra period, the Knights emerged with a 66-65 victory. Jamichael Stillwell led the way on 17 points with 15 rebounds and one steal for a double-double in the winning effort.

Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview

Over on the Arizona side, they opened the season on a great run. The Wildcats posted victories in each of their first 23 outings, remaining undefeated until February 9 versus Kansas. After another loss to Texas Tech in the next game the Wildcats beat BYU, Houston, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State and Colorado from there. That gives Arizona a 29-2 overall record in 31 games this year.

In the Colorado matchup on Saturday the Wildcats were sitting in the locker room with a 38-36 deficit on the scoreboard. Arizona woke up in the second half with a 53-41 advantage and ended up taking the victory on the road in the end 89-79. Tops in scoring during the victory was Koa Peat with 25 points, three rebounds, four assists and one block in 35 minutes.

UCF Knights @ Arizona Wildcats Betting Trends: March 12, 2026

Why the Arizona Wildcats will win

• Arizona has won each of its last 21 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• UCF has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
• UCF has lost the first half in each of its last five games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.

Why the UCF Knights will win

• UCF has won six of its last seven games played at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Nineteen of Arizona’s last 20 day games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 160 or fewer points.
• Each of UCF’s last seven Conference Tournament day games have produced a total of 160 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Arizona ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for point differential per game this season (+18.1).
• Arizona ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (96.4).

Arizona vs UCF Prediction

I’ll lean toward Arizona; I just wish the line were a little bit thinner–maybe around 12-14 points or so. The Wildcats started slowly in their latest road win over a pretty solid Colorado team last weekend, but eventually shot 55.9 percent from the filed with a 34-30 rebounding edge and a 54-26 advantage in the paint during a double-digit win. The Wildcats were good on defense with just 40.1 percent shooting allowed from the field. Arizona has won six straight games now, scoring 73 or more points in each one of those victories.

These teams last played each other back on January 17 in an 84-77 road win for the Wildcats. In that one Arizona shot very well from the field (52.7 percent) but not so well from outside (23.1 percent on 3-of-13). The Wildcats had a 36-28 edge in the paint and a 37-31 advantage on the boards, but also coughed up 12 turnovers. Arizona should have the advantage in this one if they play to their capabilities. I think the Wildcats will pull this one off without too much fuss. The hefty line might make this one more trouble than it’s worth, though. I probably won’t even mess with it in reality.