Cal Poly vs UC San Diego 3/5/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The UC-San Diego Tritons and the Cal Poly Mustangs meet in college basketball action from the Mott Athletics Center on Saturday night.

The UC-San Diego Tritons will look to build on back-to-back wins after a 72-70 win over Cal State-Bakersfield last time out. Toni Rocak leads the Tritons in scoring and rebounding with 14.9 PPG and 6.5 RPG while Francis Nwaokone has 11.5 PPG with 5.8 RPG and Bryce Pope has 12.7 PPG to make up the trio of double-digit scorers for UCSD so far this season. Jace Roquemore leads the Tritons in assists with 3.3 APG this season. As a team, UC-San Diego is averaging 70 PPG on 44.5% shooting from the field, 36.5% from three and 74% from the foul line while allowing 70.2 PPG on 46% shooting from the field and 31.8% from three this season.

The Cal Poly Mustangs will try to build on a surprising 65-54 win over UC-Irvine last time out. Alimamy Koroma leads the Mustangs in scoring with 14 PPG along with 5.5 RPG while Jacob Davison has 11.9 PPG as the only other double-digit scorer for Cal Poly so far this season. Trevon Taylor has a team-high 5.4 RPG and Camren Pierce has 3.8 APG as well for the Mustangs so far this season. As a team, Cal Poly is averaging 61.1 PPG on 40.4% shooting from the field, 29% from three and 72.6% from the foul line while allowing 67.2 PPG on 41.4% shooting from the field and 35.4% from three this season.

UC-San Diego is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a win while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. Cal Poly is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog while the under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games against a team with a road winning percentage below .400.

I get the case to be made for a home underdog, even in a near pick ‘em spot, but the problem is that the Mustangs just can’t string wins together consistently. The win over UC-Irvine was impressive, but the success hasn’t been sustainable for much of the year. On the other side, UC-San Diego has been streaky, but they’ve picked up a couple of wins lately and the Tritons are in a winnable spot here. Give me the Tritons in this one.