Dayton vs Illinois State Prediction 3/25/26 College Basketball Picks Today
Illinois State (22-12) vs. Dayton (25-11)
March 25, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Dayton -7.5; Over/Under: 139.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Illinois State Redbirds and the Dayton Flyers meet Wednesday in NIT college basketball action from UD Arena in Dayton. Here’s a Dayton vs. Illinois State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Dayton vs. Illinois State pick.
Illinois State Redbirds Betting Preview
Illinois State was sitting at 12-6 through their first 18 games back in mid-January and coming off a three-game losing streak. The rest of the regular season was an 8-5 run with wins over Bradley, Northern Iowa, Murray State, Drake, Valparaiso, Murray State, Northern Iowa and Belmont in succession. After a conference tourney loss to Northern Iowa, the Redbirds have since beaten Kent State and Wake Forest.
In the Second Round NIT matchup versus Wake Forest on Sunday, the Redbirds came back out onto the floor in the second half with a 32-32 tie. Illinois State posted a 46-43 run the rest of the way and finished up the game with a nice victory, 78-75. Ty Pence was the leading scorer with 23 points with four rebounds and Johnny Kenziger added 19 points with five assists and three rebounds.
Dayton Flyers Betting Preview
Over on the Dayton side, they posted a 1-5 run in January/February that knocked the team back to 15-9 overall on the season. Wins over Davidson, George Mason, Duquesne, Saint Louis, George Washington and Richmond came next, then a loss to VCU. After wins over St. Bonaventure and St. Louis ahead of a loss to VCU in the conference tourney, Dayton has dispatched Bradley and UNC Wilmington in the last pair.
Matched up against UNC Wilmington in Second Round NIT action on Sunday, the Flyers were up by four points, 37-33 going into the second half. Dayton turned it on from there with a 43-28 run and ended up with the sizable win, 80-61. De’Shayne Montgomery topped the scorers with his 20 points, two rebounds, two assists and three steals in 33 minutes of work on the court in the victory effort.
Why the Dayton Flyers will win
- Dayton has won each of its last 21 night games against non-Conference opponents at the University of Dayton Arena.
- Illinois State has lost four of its last five games against the Atlantic 10 Conference.
- Dayton has won the first half in each of its last nine night games against non-Conference opponents.
Why the Illinois State Redbirds will win
- Illinois State has won nine of its last 10 night games against non-Conference opponents.
- Illinois State has won the first half in each of its last six Wednesday night games against non-Conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Dayton’s last nine night games against non-Conference opponents has produced a total of 141+ points.
- Six of Illinois State’s last seven night games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 140+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Dayton ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (18.8).
- Dayton ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for opponent assist-to-turnover ratio this season (0.85).
- Illinois State ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (68.4%).
- Illinois State ranks T37th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (6.5).
Dayton vs Illinois State Prediction
I’ll lean toward Dayton. The Flyers took care of a pretty good UNC Wilmington team without too much fanfare over the weekend, posting 51.8 percent shooting with 81.3 percent (13-of-16) from the line. Dayton added a 33-26 rebounding edge and held the Seahawks to just 14.3 percent (3-of-21) from outside. The Flyers have scored 80 points in both installments of this NIT so far, and they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games in all.
As for Illinois State, they shot just 41 percent from the field in their win over Wake Forest while surrendering 50 percent on the other side. The Redbirds made up for it with a nice performance at the line on 85.7 percent (18-of-21) and scored 19 points off 10 Deacons turnovers. It was a gutsy win, that’s for sure. Illinois State is 4-1 in their last five games with 71 or more points scored in each of those wins. We’ll have a hefty total here if both teams keep up their offensive trends.
