Dayton vs UNC Wilmington Prediction 3/21/26 College Basketball Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Dayton vs UNC Wilmington Prediction for this NIT Tournament 2^nd Round matchup on Saturday, March 21^st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this college basketball matchup.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks Preview

The UNC Wilmington Seahawks have a 27-6 overall record and a 15-3 record in the CAA. They are coming off a 68-67 road win against Yale and their previous three games were an 85-70 loss against Campbell, a 76-57 road win against Elon and a 79-76 loss against Charleston.

Offensively, UNC Wilmington averages 76.8 points per game, while allowing 67.7 points per game defensively. The Seahawks shoot with 44% from the field and grab 40.2 rebounds per game, while dishing out 13.6 assists per game. They average 2.4 blocks per game and 5.2 steals per game defensively.

Nolan Hodge leads UNC Wilmington in scoring, with an average of 14.4 points per game, while shooting with 40.3% from the field and 77.2% from the free throw line. Patrick Wessler is the team’s leading rebounder with 9.6 per game. Greedy Williams leads the team in assists with 4.2 per game.

Dayton Flyers Preview

The Dayton Flyers have a 24-11 overall record and a 12-6 record in the A-10. They are coming off an 80-66 road win against Bradley and their previous three games were a 70-62 loss against VCU, a 70-69 win against Saint Louis and a 68-63 win against St. Bonaventure.

Offensively, Dayton averages 74.5 points per game, while allowing 69.8 points per game defensively. The Flyers shoot with 45% from the field and grab 32.7 rebounds per game, while dishing out 14.3 assists per game. They average 4 blocks per game and 8.3 steals per game defensively.

Javon Bennett leads Dayton in scoring, with an average of 16.5 points per game, while shooting with 39.9% from the field and 89.6% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 2.9 assists. Amaël L’Etang is the team’s leading rebounder with 5.9 per game.

Dayton Flyers @ North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks Betting Trends: March 21, 2026

Why the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks will win

• North Carolina-Wilmington has won 14 of its last 15 night games at Raiford G. Trask Coliseum following a road win.
• North Carolina-Wilmington has won the first half in 12 of its last 13 games.

Why the Dayton Flyers will win

• Dayton has won seven of its last eight night games against non-Conference opponents.
• North Carolina-Wilmington has lost each of its last three games against the Atlantic 10 Conference.
• Dayton has won the first half in each of its last eight night games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Dayton’s last eight night games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 145+ points.
• Five of North Carolina-Wilmington’s last six night games at Raiford G. Trask Coliseum have produced a total of 148+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• North Carolina-Wilmington ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (29.6%).
• North Carolina-Wilmington ranks 20th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.1).
• Dayton ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (14.9).
• Dayton ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for opponent assist to turnover ratio this season (0.83).

Dayton vs UNC Wilmington Prediction

In this Dayton vs UNC Wilmington Prediction, Dayton is coming as -2.5 road favorites. UNC Wilmington has a better overall record and Dayton has been just 4-7 against the spread on the road. Both teams have been in excellent form lately, but UNC Wilmington is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games, while Dayton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6, so I like the value with the home dog in this matchup. Take UNC Wilmington and get the +2.5 points.