Duke vs Baylor Prediction 3/23/25 College Basketball Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Duke vs Baylor prediction for this College Basketball game on Sunday, March 23rd at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament. 

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Duke Blue Devils are 32-3 (19-1) this year after they defeated Mount St. Mary’s by a score of 93-49 in their last game. Duke led 54-28 at halftime and held MSM to just 21 points in the second half in the blowout win. The Blue Devils shot 50% from the field, 37.8% on three pointers, and 75% on free throws in the game. Tyrese Proctor led Duke with 19 points and five assists, while Cooper Flagg added 14 points and seven rebounds in the game. Duke was the way better team in this matchup and they put the game out of reach early. 

Prior to that win, the Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament with wins over Louisville by a score of 73-62, North Carolina by a score of 74-71, and Georgia Tech by a score of 78-70. Duke has won 12 games in a row and they finished first in the ACC standings with a 19-1 record. Duke has scored 83 points per game and they have allowed 61.5 points against per game, while also averaging 38.8 rebounds and 16.9 assists per game this season. Cooper Flagg is averaging 18.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game, while Kon Knueppel is averaging 14.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game this year. Duke is shooting 48.8% from the field, 78.4% on free throws, and 37.7% on three pointers this season. 

Baylor Bears Betting Preview

The Baylor Bears are 20-14 (10-10) this season after they defeated Mississippi State by a score of 75-72 in their last game. Baylor led 37-32 at halftime, but they allowed 40 points in the second half and needed a big stop on the last possession of the game for the win. The Bears shot 43.5% from the field, 25% on three pointers, and 78.9% on free throws in the game. Robert Wright III led Baylor with 19 points and three rebounds, while Langston Love added 15 points and four rebounds in the win. Baylor played a very strong first half and they were able to win the rebounding battle 37-29, which was a huge reason for the win. 

Prior to that game, the Bears lost to Texas Tech by a score of 76-74, but did beat Kansas State by a score of 70-56 before that. Baylor has won four of their last six games and they finished tied for seventh in the Big 12 standings with a 10-10 record. Baylor has scored 76.4 points per game and they have allowed 69.2 points against per game, while also averaging 36 rebounds and 14.6 assists per game this season. Norchad Omier is averaging 15.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game, while VJ Edgecombe is averaging 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game this year. Baylor is shooting 44.8% from the field, 74.5% on free throws, and 35.1% on three pointers this season. 

Why Duke will beat Baylor

• Duke has won each of its last 12 games.
• Baylor has lost each of its last six games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.
• Duke has won the first half in 18 of its last 19 games against non-Conference opponents.

Why Baylor will beat Duke

• Baylor has won 10 of its last 11 day games against non-Conference opponents.
• Duke has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament day games.
• Baylor has won the first half in each of its last five games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Duke’s last nine day games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 143 or fewer points.
• Eight of Baylor’s last nine games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 145+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Duke ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for point differential per game this season (+22.1).
• Duke ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for offensive rating this season (126.4).
• Baylor ranks 47th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (69.4%).

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Duke vs Baylor Prediction 

Duke rolls into this matchup looking for their 13th win in a row and they absolutely dominated Mount St. Mary’s in their first game. The Blue Devils have been one of the highest ranked teams all season, but they are the only team left from the ACC. Baylor was able to pick up a very nice win over Mississippi State in their last game, but this will be a much tougher test. The Bears do have a win over St. John’s this season, but they need to shoot the ball much better than they did against Mississippi State if they want to compete. I do like Duke to run away with this game, but I like the over better, as I think Baylor can get into the high 60’s at a minimum.