Duke vs Texas Prediction 11/4/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The Texas Longhorns and the Duke Blue Devils meet Tuesday in college basketball action from Spectrum Center. Here’s a Duke vs Texas prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Duke vs Texas pick.

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

Record-wise, the Longhorns took a step backward last season. Following a 21-13 run overall in the 2023-24 campaign, Texas went just 19-16 last year with a rough 6-12 record among a very competitive Southeastern Conference. That finish put the Longhorns ahead of only Oklahoma, LSU and South Carolina in the standings. Texas had originally been predicted to finish in seventh place by the annual preseason SEC media poll. Outside of a nice 4-2 run in January and February, the Longhorns struggled down the stretch and went into the SEC Tournament on a 1-4 skid. Texas did make it to the quarterfinals, where they lost to Tennessee. After a berth in the NCAA Tournament, the Longhorns fell to Xavier in the First Four game on March 19.

Former Xavier coach Sean Miller inherits the team this season for his inaugural campaign at the helm. He’ll get just four players back from last year’s lot, though. That said, Miller will have two starters returning to the mix. Arthur Kaluma, Kadin Shedrick and Tre Johnson have all moved on, so there will be plenty of new faces on the Longhorns roster this year.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

Over on the Duke side, they opened last year’s campaign ranked seventh in the nation. Duke would go on to exceed that designation, climbing to No. 3 on the way to a 35-4 overall run. The Blue Devils went a stellar 19-1 in the very competitive ACC, giving the team a regular-season conference championship by one game over Louisville and Clemson. Duke stormed through the ACC Tournament with a final-round win over the Cardinals, then beat Mount St. Mary’s, Baylor, Arizona and Alabama on the way to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament. Duke’s season would end there however, as the team fell 70-67 versus Houston on April 5.

This year the Blue Devils had to dive into the transfer portal, getting a relatively late start to the process thanks to their lengthy tournament run. Duke had a load of turnover in the offseason, with all five starters departing. It’ll be a very young roster as a result; there are only two upperclassmen in the predicted rotation. Gone are Sion James, Kon Kneuppel, Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach.

Texas Longhorns @ Duke Blue Devils Betting Trends: November 4, 2025

Why the Duke Blue Devils will win

• Duke has won each of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Texas has lost each of its last six night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Duke has won the first half in each of its last 11 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Texas Longhorns will win

• Texas has won eight of its last nine night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Texas has won the first half in 28 of its last 29 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Duke’s last six games against the Southeastern Conference at neutral venues have produced a total of 150 or fewer points.
• Each of Texas’ last four games have produced a total of 151+ points.

Duke vs Texas Prediction

I’ll probably stay with Duke. You could make an argument either way, though; this one’s going to be a fun matchup. In any case, no one is going to feel too badly for Duke in getting a late relative start to the transfer portal, but these days it does make a difference to strike quickly in that regard. Still, The Blue Devils look good on paper—like they almost always do—and should be a force in the ACC once again. Duke is a very young team however, and that lack of experience could wreak havoc at key points in the season. The team has a pretty daunting non-conference schedule in store, including the Longhorns, Kansas, Texas Tech, Arkansas and Michigan.

As for Texas, it’s sure to be an interesting season under Miller. He’ll get Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark back in the fold, which might be enough to anchor a promising run early in the season. Overall the team looks pretty good considering all the turnover. Still, it’s not going to be an easy schedule, especially when the conference games kick in. Texas starts it all off with a tricky one here, but I could also see them controlling this game most of the way. This game should be a great one to check out, and it’ll go a long way in telling us what each team will look like in 2025-26.