Illinois vs Xavier Prediction 3/21/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The Xavier Musketeers and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet Friday in NCAA Tournament First Round college basketball action from Fiserv Forum. Here’s an Illinois vs Xavier prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Illinois vs Xavier pick.

Xavier Musketeers Betting Preview

The Musketeers had something of a spotty record going from late November into early February but they were able to correct their course toward the end of the regular season. Xavier opened on a 6-0 stretch then lost to Michigan, TCU, Cincinnati, UConn, Marquette, Georgetown and St. John’s over the next 10 games. Losses to St. John’s Creighton and Villanova came in the next eight games alongside wins over DePaul, Villanova, Marquette, UConn and Georgetown. Xavier would take out Providence, DePaul, Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler and Providence to finish off the regular season before a conference tournament loss to Marquette and a First Four win over Texas. That gives the Musketeers a 21-11 overall record though 32 games.

In Wednesday’s NCAA Tournament matchup versus Texas, the Musketeers were in trouble at the break with a 47-39 deficit. Xavier stormed back with a 47-33 second half to take the eventual victory 86-80 in dramatic fashion. Leading the team in scoring was Marcus Foster with 22 points and eight rebounds alongside two assists in 31 minutes of work.

Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview

Over on the Illinois side, they were looking pretty good in mid-January before hitting a choppy run amid some tough Big Ten games. The Illini opened up on a 12-3 run, then lost four of the next six games versus USC, Michigan State, Maryland and Nebraska (with wins over Indiana and Northwestern). A 3-1 stretch came next featuring wins over Ohio State, Minnesota and UCLA, then losses to Michigan State, Wisconsin and Duke. Illinois beat Iowa, Michigan and Purdue to finish off the regular season, then took out Iowa in Big Ten Tournament action before falling to Maryland. That gives Illinois a 21-12 record through 33 games this year so far.

Matched up against Maryland last Friday, the Illini were pummeled 57-31 in the first half. Illinois got a little better from there on a 34-31 run in an eventual blowout loss 88-65. Kasparas Jakucionis doubled up with 15 points, 10 rebounds and four assists, while Will Riley added 15 points and seven rebounds. Kylan Boswell put up 14 points with three rebounds and one assist, and Morez Johnson led the bench scoring on six points with nine boards in 28 minutes.

Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win

• Illinois has won each of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
• Xavier has lost four of its last five night games against the Big Ten Conference.
• Illinois has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Why the Xavier Musketeers will win

• Xavier has won each of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Illinois has lost each of its last five games against the Big East Conference.
• Xavier has won the first half in eight of its last nine games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Xavier’s last eight games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 157 or fewer points.
• Each of Illinois’ last four games against the Big East Conference Conference have produced a total of 157 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Illinois ranks T2nd among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (42.4).
• Illinois ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (30.3).
• Xavier ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for free throw percentage this season (79.3%).
• Xavier ranks 15th among Division 1 teams for three-point percentage this season (38.5%).

Illinois vs Xavier Prediction

I’ll lean slightly toward Illinois here, but it’s something of a coin flip. The Illini were demolished by a dangerous Maryland team in their Big Ten Tournament matchup, shooting just 36.5 percent from the field and 22.2 percent (6-of-27) from outside. Illinois coughed up 17 turnovers for 22 Terrapins points along the way and had exactly zero fast break points and zero points off turnovers. The good news for the Illini is that they had been playing well prior to that with 81 or more points in four straight wins. Illinois just needs to shake off the bad loss and get back to business in the national tournament.

As for Xavier, they overcame a slow first half in the win over Texas and eventually shot a nice 55.2 percent from the field with 48 percent (12-of-25) from 3-point range and just seven turnovers. The Musketeers weren’t great from the line though (10-of-16 for 62.5 percent) and had a 33-28 rebounding deficit. Xavier is on quite a scoring tear these days, with 73 or more points in nine straight games—an 8-1 run overall. This one’s probably going to be a fairly high total, but I think the Illini can power it out if they hit the gas early on offense.