Kentucky vs Illinois Prediction 3/23/25 College Basketball Picks Today
Illinois (22-12) vs. Kentucky (23-11)
March 23, 2025 5:15 pm EDT
The Line: Kentucky +1.5; Over/Under: 170.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Kentucky Wildcats meet Sunday in NCAA Tournament Second Round college basketball action from Fiserv Forum. Here’s a Kentucky vs Illinois prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Kentucky vs Illinois pick.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Illinois started out the year on an impressive run, but then ran into some trouble during a tough Big Ten schedule. The Illini were 12-3 through their first 15 games with defeats thanks to Alabama, Northwestern and Tennessee, then took losses to USC, Michigan State, Maryland, Nebraska and Rutgers during their next eight outings. Following wins over Minnesota and UCLA, the Illini fell to Michigan State, Wisconsin and Duke in succession. Illinois bounced back with wins over Iowa, Michigan and Purdue to finish off the regular season, then beat Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament before a blowout loss to Maryland last Friday. The Illini were able to bounce back in their First Round national tournament game versus Xavier though, giving the team a 22-12 overall record through 34 games so far this year.
In their NCAA Tournament First Round matchup versus Xavier on Friday, the Illini held a 40-35 lead going into the second half. Illinois kept it going with a 46-38 run from there and took the win 86-73 in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Will Riley with 22 points and four rebounds. Tomislav Ivisic doubled up on 20 points with 10 boards and two blocks, as did Kasparas Jakucionis with 16 points and 10 assists (and six turnovers). Kylan Boswell chipped in 15 points with five rebounds and two assists, and the top bench scorer was Morez Johnson with six points and five boards in 12 minutes of work during the victory effort.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
Over on the Kentucky side, they followed a similar path this year with a nice start followed by a bit of a choppy run in difficult conference matchups. The Wildcats posted a 14-3 run in their first 17 games, falling to only Clemson, Ohio State and Georgia during that time. Kentucky lost four of the next five outings versus Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Ole Miss, then beat South Carolina and Tennessee in the next pair. A 2-3 run came next featuring losses to Texas, Alabama and Auburn, then a pair of wins to finish off the regular season over LSU and Missouri. Kentucky beat Oklahoma in a close finish during their first game of the conference tournament, but fell in a 29-point deficit to Alabama last Friday. Kentucky came back for a First Round victory over Troy though, giving the team a 23-11 overall record so far this year.
In the Troy matchup, the Wildcats didn’t have too many issues. Kentucky was up 35-27 at the end of the first half, then hit a 41-30 run the rest of the way. The result was a 76-57 win in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Otega Oweh with 20 points, eight boards and six assists alongside two steals. Koby Brea added 13 points with four assists and two boards, while Andrew Carr had 13 points with three assists, three blocks and two rebounds. Leading the team in bench scoring was Brandon Garrison with 13 points, six rebounds, two assists and two steals in 16 minutes on the floor during the win.
Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win
- Kentucky has won each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Illinois has lost four of its last five games against AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
- Kentucky has won the first half in each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win
- Illinois has won each of its last five day games played at neutral venues.
- Kentucky has lost eight of its last 10 day games played at neutral venues.
- Illinois has won the first half in seven of its last eight day games against non-Conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Kentucky’s last 32 NCAA Tournament games have produced a total of 170 or fewer points.
- Each of Illinois’ last 12 day games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 167 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Kentucky ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for true shooting percentage this season (62.2%).
- Kentucky ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (85.8).
- Illinois ranks T2nd among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (42.4).
- Illinois ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (30.3).
Kentucky vs Illinois Prediction
I’m going to stay with Kentucky. You could probably call this one either way, though. It’ll be a fun game if both teams play to their capabilities. The Wildcats dispatched Troy without a ton of fanfare this week, hitting a nice 47.5 percent from the field with 39 rebounds and 23 team assists. It wasn’t perfect however, as Kentucky missed six of their 16 free throws (62.5 percent) and had 10 turnovers for 11 Trojans points. Still, it was a pretty nice all-around effort. The Wildcats have been on a great scoring run pretty much all year, with 69 or more points in 22 straight outings.
As for Illinois, they’re 5-1 in their last six with 81 or more points in each win. On paper this looks like a completive game with a high total, so it’ll be a great one to watch.
