Kentucky vs Troy Prediction 3/21/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The Troy Trojans and the Kentucky Wildcats meet Friday in NCAA Tournament First Round college basketball action from Fiserv Forum. Here’s a Kentucky vs Troy prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Kentucky vs Troy pick.

Troy Trojans Betting Preview

The Trojans had a few bumps in the road during the regular season, but they finished strong to power their way into the national tournament. Troy opened the year on a 10-4 run with losses to Arkansas, Oregon, Merrimack and Houston. A 1-3 stretch came next with defeats courtesy of Texas State, Arkansas State and South Alabama, then a 6-3 run with wins over South Alabama, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern, LA Monroe, Louisiana and Arkansas State. The losses otherwise were versus James Madison, Miami OH and Louisiana. Since then it’s been wins over Coastal Carolina, Texas State, Southern Miss, Old Dominion, James Madison and Arkansas State, giving the Trojans a 23-10 overall record across 33 games and a Sun Belt Tournament championship in the books.

In the final conference tournament matchup versus Arkansas State, the Trojans were down by two points going into the second half. Troy surged on a 53-38 run the rest of the way however, resulting in a 94-81 win in the end. Tops in scoring was Tayton Conerway with 21 points, six rebounds and three assists. Myles Rigsby added 20 points with two assists and two steals, while Thomas Dowd added 14 points with nine rebounds and three steals. Theo Seng was tops off the bench with nine points and six boards in 16 minutes of work during the victory.

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview

Over on the Kentucky side, they started out on a pretty solid run, then began to struggle amid some tough conference matchups down the stretch. The Wildcats started out at 14-3 with losses to Clemson, Ohio State and Georgia. Losses came in the next five games to Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Ole Miss, then a 4-3 stretch with wins over South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. The losses otherwise were versus Texas, Alabama and Auburn. Following wins over LSU, Missouri and Alabama, the Wildcats finished off the conference tournament with a loss to Alabama last Friday. That gives Kentucky an overall record of 22-11 through 33 games so far this season.

Matched up against a tough Alabama team in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, the Wildcats trailed by seven points at halftime. Kentucky was blitzed 54-32 the rest of the way during a 99-70 defeat in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Andrew Carr with 18 points, two steals and two boards. Amari Williams added 16 points with seven rebounds and four assists, while Travis Perry also finished in double-digits with 11 points and four rebounds. Trent Noah and Collin Chandler each had four points off the bench as well.

Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win

• Troy has lost each of its last 13 games against the Southeastern Conference.
• Kentucky has won each of its last 33 Friday games against non-Conference opponents.
• Kentucky has won the first half in each of its last 20 Friday games against non-Conference opponents.

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won each of its last six games.
• Kentucky has lost four of its last five NCAA Tournament games.
• Kentucky has lost the first half in each of its last four games against non-Conference opponents at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Troy’s last nine games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 150 or fewer points.
• Each of Kentucky’s last seven games have produced a total of 159+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Kentucky ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for true shooting percentage this season (62.2%).
• Kentucky ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (85.8).
• Troy ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (9.5).
• Troy ranks 23rd among Division 1 teams for opponent points per game this season (64.9).

Kentucky vs Troy Prediction

I’ll take a stab on Troy here. The Trojans started out a little slowly versus Arkansas State in their Sun Belt Championship Game win, but finished strong on the way to the title. Troy shot 46.7 percent from the field in that one with a 39-35 rebounding edge and just eight turnovers. The 3-point shooting (5-of-17 for 29.4 percent) could have been a bit better, but Troy was great from the line on 33-of-39 (84.6 percent). During each installment of this current six-game win streak, the Trojans have scored at least 70 points. If they can somehow keep that run going here, Troy will be in great shape.

As for Kentucky, they ran into a talented Alabama team in the SEC Tournament and couldn’t quite get over the hump. The Wildcats shot just 37.5 percent from the field with a 41-34 rebounding deficit and 16 turnovers for 29 Tide points. Kentucky had scored 85 or more points in three straight prior to that game (all wins), so Troy will need to hit the gas offensively in this one in order to keep a cover pace.